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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 21
2020-07-11 22:40:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 112040 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 ...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 121.0W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 121.0 West. Cristina is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the weekend and into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina will continue to steadily weaken over the next few days and become a remnant low by early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-07-11 22:40:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 112040 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 125W 34 1 19(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-07-11 22:39:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 112039 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 121.0W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 121.0W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.4W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 125.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.5N 127.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.5N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.9N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 23.8N 145.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 121.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-07-11 16:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 924 WTPZ45 KNHC 111435 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 500 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 Over the past several hours, the coverage of deep convection around the center of Cristina has gradually decreased as the cyclone continues to move over relatively cool 24 C waters. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS SATCON all support lowering the initial intensity to 55 kt. Cristina is forecast to move over even cooler waters and into a progressively drier and more stable air mass over the next couple of days. These conditions should cause the cyclone to steadily weaken. By 60 h, Cristina is forecast to have lost its deep convection near its center and become a remnant low. There is a chance that the convection could dissipate sooner than indicated, and Cristina could become a post-tropical cyclone while wind speeds are still greater than 30 kt. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one. Cristina is moving just north of due west at 12 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next several days, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. early on, then by the low level easterlies once the system becomes a remnant low. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered track guidance, and is little changed from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 20.6N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 21.2N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 21.6N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 22.1N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 23.1N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z 23.8N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1200Z 24.0N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-07-11 16:33:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 111433 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) 20N 125W 34 1 10(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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