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Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-07-06 22:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 062033 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard Public Advisory Number 10
2020-07-06 22:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 062033 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 PM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 ...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 46.0W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard was located near latitude 42.7 North, longitude 46.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving quickly toward the northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast before Edouard is absorbed into a larger frontal boundary on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-07-06 22:33:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 062033 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 46.0W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 33 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 180SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 46.0W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 47.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 45.1N 40.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 48.5N 33.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.7N 46.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-07-06 16:42:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 061442 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 Visible satellite imagery continues to show that the low-level center of Edouard is exposed to the southwest of the area of deep convection. A frontal boundary is approaching the system from the northwest and there are signs that Edouard's extratropical transition has begun. Subjective and objective intensity estimates from TAFB and UW/CIMSS are between 35-45 kt, and the initial intensity has been raised to 40 kt based on the above, and the rapid forward speed of the cyclone. ASCAT data should provide a better assessment of Edouard's intensity very shortly. Edouard is racing northeastward with an initial estimate of 055/32 kt. The cyclone should continue on this general speed and heading over the next day or two as it remains embedded within an area of strong southwesterly flow. The updated NHC track forecast is again near the middle of the guidance envelope and very similar to the previous advisory. Cooler waters, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, and the approaching frontal zone should cause Edouard to complete its extratropical transition within the next 6-12 hours. Little change in strength is expected as this occurs. Gradual weakening should begin on Tuesday, and the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate within a frontal zone over the north Atlantic in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 40.8N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 43.2N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 07/1200Z 46.7N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/0000Z 50.0N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1200Z 53.0N 20.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Edouard Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-07-06 16:42:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 061442 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 1500 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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