je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Depression Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-07-06 22:38:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 062038 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 100W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 55(59) 6(65) X(65) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 5(46) X(46) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 16(41) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-06 22:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 208 WTPZ45 KNHC 062038 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 Satellite imagery shows that deep convection associated with the low pressure area south of Mexico has become significantly better organized since this morning. ASCAT data from earlier this afternoon suggested that the circulation was still somewhat elongated, but since that time low cloud motions indicate that the circulation has become better defined. The scatterometer data also revealed believable wind vectors of at least 30 kt, with higher rain-inflated vectors within the deep convection. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression at this time. The depression is located within a favorable environment consisting of low vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere. As a result, steady strengthening is anticipated over the next several days, and the NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids IVCN and HCCA, but is not quite as bullish as the SHIPS guidance. Given the anticipated low wind shear conditions over the next few days, a period of rapid strengthening is possible, and this intensity forecast could be somewhat conservative. The cyclone is expected to move over cooler waters in about 96 hours, which should cause weakening by the end of the period. Since the depression is still in its formative stage, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/11 kt. The depression is being steered west-northwestward to the south of a large mid-level ridge located over the south-central United States. A general west-northwestward heading about around the same forward speed is expected over the next several days. The dynamical model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 10.5N 99.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 11.2N 101.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 12.1N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 13.0N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 15.7N 110.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 17.2N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 18.8N 118.7W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Five-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-07-06 22:38:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 062037 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.5N 99.7W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 99.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is predicted during the next 48 hours and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and it could become a hurricane on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-07-06 22:37:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 062037 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 99.7W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 99.7W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 99.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 11.2N 101.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.1N 103.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.0N 105.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.7N 110.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 17.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 18.8N 118.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 99.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-07-06 22:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 062033 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 PM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 Although Edouard continues to produce some deep convection, recent satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the center of the cyclone has merged with a frontal boundary. Therefore, the system is now classified as extratropical and this is the last advisory. The scatterometer data showed max winds of 35-40 kt, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The 35 kt wind radii were also increased in the southeast quadrant based on the scatterometer data. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to continue moving quickly northeastward for the next day or so until it is absorbed into a larger frontal zone over the north Atlantic late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The NHC track and intensity forecast is close to the global model consensus, and all of those models are in good agreement for the next 24 h. This is the last NHC advisory on Edouard. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 42.7N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 07/0600Z 45.1N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 07/1800Z 48.5N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
cyclone
Sites : [1269] [1270] [1271] [1272] [1273] [1274] [1275] [1276] [1277] [1278] [1279] [1280] [1281] [1282] [1283] [1284] [1285] [1286] [1287] [1288] next »