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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-07-05 04:36:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050236 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 0300 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 66.3W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 66.3W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 67.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.0N 63.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 37.0N 59.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.7N 53.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.5N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 66.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-04 22:31:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042031 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 Overall, the depression's organization hasn't changed much since the last advisory. Cloud tops have warmed a little, but the overall pattern is the same, with deep convection limited to the south of the center. Late-arriving ASCAT-C data from earlier this morning showed max winds of 25-30 kt southeast of the depression's center, and is the primary basis for maintaining the 30 kt intensity. No changes of significance were made to the NHC track or intensity forecast. The official forecast is still based on the track and intensity consensus, with extra weight given to the dynamical models for the intensity. The depression is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward in the flow between a trough to its north and a ridge to its south. A combination of shear and dry air will likely prevent it from getting better organized, and no substantial strengthening is expected. By Monday morning, baroclinic forcing could allow the system to strengthen slightly before it undergoes extratropical transition or merges with a non-tropical weather system. Alternatively, the system could open into a trough on Sunday as its forward speed increases, as depicted by most of the global models. Since most of those models also show the low reforming a day later before it becomes extratropical, the NHC forecast carries the system as a continuous cyclone for the sake of simplicity. It should be stressed that the rain and gusty winds associated with the system as it passes near Bermuda overnight will be the same regardless of the state of its circulation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 31.8N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 33.1N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 35.3N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 38.3N 56.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 41.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 44.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-07-04 22:30:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 04 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 042030 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 2100 UTC SAT JUL 04 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Five Public Advisory Number 2
2020-07-04 22:30:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 042030 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 ...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...FORECAST TO MOVE PAST BERMUDA OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 67.3W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 67.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A faster east-northeastward motion is expected tonight, followed by additional acceleration on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move near or just northwest and north of Bermuda tonight and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in strength is likely, however the system could become a tropical storm tonight or early Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Depression Five could cause gusty conditions on Bermuda and over the nearby waters later today or tonight. The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Gale Warning. For more information please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. RAIN: Tropical Depression Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of less than 1 inch with possible isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches in Bermuda. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-07-04 22:30:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 042030 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 2100 UTC SAT JUL 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 67.3W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 67.3W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 68.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 33.1N 65.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 35.3N 61.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.3N 56.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 41.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 44.0N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 67.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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