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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 32
2021-07-08 04:59:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 080258 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 82.3W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Little River Inlet South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet New Jersey, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island and Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Altamaha Sound Georgia has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey. * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 82.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward northeast is expected overnight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states late Thursday and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday. Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land, and some re-strengthening is possible on Friday while the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mostly southeast of the center near the coast. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches) based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast tonight, along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday, along the North Carolina coast on Thursday and along the mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Friday. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 inches are likely tonight through Thursday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches from late tonight through Thursday night are possible, which could lead to limited flash and urban flooding. From the Mid-Atlantic into New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches are possible Thursday into Friday. This could lead to limited flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible overnight from southeastern Georgia into the coastal plain of South Carolina. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 32
2021-07-08 04:57:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 080257 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA TO GREAT EGG INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND AND DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO GREAT EGG INLET...NEW JERSEY. * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF GREAT EGG INLET...NEW JERSEY TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 82.3W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 82.3W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 82.7W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 34.1N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 37.1N 77.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.4N 72.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 54.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 82.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 31A
2021-07-08 01:49:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 072349 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 ...ELSA OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND VERY HEAVY RAIN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 82.7W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of St. Mary's River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 82.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward northeast is expected overnight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles (160 km) generally southeast of the center near the Atlantic coast. A WeatherFlow station on Jekyll Island, Georgia recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches) based on surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...additional 1 to 3 inches through tonight, with storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches. Localized maximum storm totals up to 12 inches across southwest Florida. Additional heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with continued rises to minor and isolated moderate flood. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible this evening into Thursday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday night, which could lead to limited flash and urban flooding. Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This could lead to limited flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should move into the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 31
2021-07-07 22:57:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 072057 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Surface synoptic data indicate that the center of Elsa has moved into extreme southern Georgia and, assuming continued weakening since earlier today, the maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt. This may be a generous estimate of the current intensity since no surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been recently received. Elsa should weaken into a tropical depression on Thursday. By early Friday, the dynamical models show some restrengthening of the cyclone as it moves along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. However, the simulated satellite imagery from the global models at that time depict the system resembling a frontal cyclone, so it is dubious as to whether Elsa will be completely tropical in 48 hours. Due to the uncertainty as to when extratropical transition will occur, tropical storm watches have been issued for Long Island and portions of southern New England at this time. The initial motion is northward, or 010/12 kt. Elsa is forecast to turn north-northeastward overnight as it moves around the northwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge while accelerating northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States and Canada on Thursday. The official forecast is about the same as the previous one and closely follows the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. Heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result inconsiderable flash and urban flooding across southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England states by Thursday night or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 30.8N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/0600Z 32.8N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1800Z 35.6N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1800Z 42.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/0600Z 46.0N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z 50.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 31
2021-07-07 22:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 072056 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 ...ELSA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 83.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor to the eastern tip along the north shore. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of southern New England from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. All warnings have been discontinued along the Florida Gulf coast. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.4 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected this evening, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Moody Air Force Base near Valdosta, Georgia, has recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Aucilla River...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...additional 1 to 3 inches through tonight, with storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches. Localized maximum storm totals up to 12 inches across southwest Florida. Additional heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with continued rises to minor and isolated moderate flood. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible this evening into Thursday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday night, which could lead to limited flash and urban flooding. Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This could lead to limited flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should move into the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown
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