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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30

2021-07-07 16:59:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 071459 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 10(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) KINGS BAY GA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 60 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) JACKSONVILLE 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 30

2021-07-07 16:59:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 071459 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF ARIPEKA...FLORIDA...HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH...THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND...AND DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA TO THE AUCILLA RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER * MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 83.6W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 83.6W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 83.6W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.7N 82.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 95SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 34.3N 80.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.6N 73.3W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.5N 68.0W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 58.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 83.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 29A

2021-07-07 13:56:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 071156 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 ...ELSA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 83.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued south of the Middle of Longboat Key. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from the Middle of Longboat Key to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Chassahowitzka to the Steinhatchee River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from south of Chassahowitzka to the Middle of Longboat Key * West coast of Florida north of the Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River * Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas, the mid-Atlantic coast, southeastern New England, and the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NWS Doppler radars near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 83.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a general northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late this morning or this afternoon. The storm should then move across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely until landfall later today. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. A C-MAN station at Cedar Key, Florida, recently measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) gusting to 51 mph (66 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions could still occur in the hurricane warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Gulf coast of Florida in the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic states by Thursday night and Friday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Aucilla River...3 to 5 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Charlotte Harbor...1 to 3 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across west-central to north Florida into this afternoon. The tornado threat will continue later today through tonight across southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the west coast of Florida through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown

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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 29

2021-07-07 11:06:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 070906 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 The central convection associated with Elsa dissipated for a time earlier this morning, although the latest radar and satellite imagery shows a new band forming in the northern semicircle. This decrease was likely caused by a combination of shear and dry air entrainment, and it has caused the cyclone to weaken. Aircraft and surface observations indicate the central pressure has risen to near 1004 mb, and the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 55 kt based on aircraft and Doppler radar data. After a slight jog to the left, the storm has resumed a motion of 360/12. This motion should continue for the next 12 h or so until landfall occurs across the northwestern Florida peninsula. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected by, followed by acceleration toward the northeast as Elsa moves into the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast guidance has shifted a little to the left since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that direction. The new track lies a little to the right of the various consensus models. While little change in strength is forecast before landfall, there is a chance that the new convection could cause a short-lived re-intensification. So, based on this possibility a hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of the west coast of Florida. After landfall, Elsa should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States, followed by some re-intensification as it accelerates back over the Atlantic. The system is expected to become extratropical by the time it reaches the Canadian Maritimes in 72 h. The new intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the guidance envelope and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula today, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and isolated moderate river flooding. Heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida today, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible during the next several hours along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the western Florida peninsula and will continue to spread northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area through today. 4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic state by Thursday night or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 28.5N 83.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 30.2N 83.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 32.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1800Z 35.3N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0600Z 38.1N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1800Z 41.5N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/0600Z 45.6N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z 54.0N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29

2021-07-07 10:56:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 070856 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 3(25) X(25) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 2(30) X(30) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) X(33) X(33) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) X(27) X(27) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) X(19) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 9(38) X(38) X(38) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 37(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 10(10) 24(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FLORENCE SC 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 9(10) 20(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 3( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 9(10) 15(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 24(26) 10(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 23(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) AUGUSTA GA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 3 40(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 10 26(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) WAYCROSS GA 34 25 57(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) WAYCROSS GA 50 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 10 15(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) JACKSONVILLE 34 19 22(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) GAINESVILLE FL 34 72 3(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) GAINESVILLE FL 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 19 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 50 49 X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ST MARKS FL 34 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ST MARKS FL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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