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Tropical Depression Six-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-07-14 10:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 140834 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 112.8W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 112.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through Thursday night. A turn toward the west is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and to be near hurricane strength by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Six-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-07-14 10:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 140834 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 42 21(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 115W 50 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 33(35) 30(65) 4(69) X(69) X(69) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 27(50) 2(52) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 2(19) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-07-14 10:34:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140834 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.9N 114.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.8N 119.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.7N 120.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.5N 123.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 15.5N 131.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 39
2021-07-09 22:42:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 092042 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021 Surface, satellite, and radar data indicate that Elsa's deep convection remains limited to a shield north of its center and that a front extends through the center of the cyclone. For those reasons, Elsa was designated as a post-tropical cyclone at 1800 UTC. Surface observations of sustained winds a little above 40 kt were reported across portions of southern Massachusetts and the nearby waters as Elsa crossed the state, so the intensity estimate remains 45 kt. Elsa is moving quickly just off the northeast coast of the U.S. with an initial motion estimate of 040/27 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected tonight and on Saturday while the system remains embedded within a deep mid-latitude trough. Very little change was made to the NHC track forecast. All available guidance indicates that Elsa will gradually weaken during the next couple of days. The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC global models now indicate the cyclone will open into a trough within the next 48 h or so, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. It is estimated that center of Elsa made landfall along the coast of Long Island near Southampton around 1430 UTC (10:30 am EDT), and again near Watch Hill, Rhode Island near 1615 UTC (12:15 pm EDT). Elsa's classification at the time the center crossed the coast will be determined in the post-storm analysis. It should also be noted that the landfall position had little bearing on the location or timing of the strong winds and heavy rain which were well removed from the cyclone's center. Since Elsa is now post-tropical and all coastal tropical storm warnings have been discontinued, this is the last NHC advisory. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves off the coast of Maine through this evening, heavy rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 43.0N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 10/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/1800Z 50.3N 56.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/0600Z 54.7N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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elsa
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Public Advisory Number 39
2021-07-09 22:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 092042 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021 ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.0N 69.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF PORTLAND MAINE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All remaining Tropical Storm Warnings for the northeastern U.S. coast have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 69.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will continue to move offshore the northeastern United States coast through this evening. The system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday. Surface observations during the past several hours indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Elsa is forecast to dissipate over the north Atlantic by Sunday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. RAINFALL: Across coastal Maine...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through this evening, which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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