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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 26
2021-07-06 20:03:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 061803 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Special Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 ...ELSA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 83.0W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued along the west coast of Florida from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key * West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a generally northward motion is expected today and tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast on Wednesday and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts, and Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane before making landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin after Elsa moves inland by late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 26
2021-07-06 20:01:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 061800 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1800 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO SOUTH OF EGMONT KEY * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 83.0W AT 06/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 83.0W AT 06/1800Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 82.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.3N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.8N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.7N 76.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 48.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 25
2021-07-06 16:46:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 061446 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 Elsa's overall cloud pattern has changed little in organization since earlier today. There continues to be minimal shower and thunderstorm activity over the western semicircle of the circulation, with some bursting of deep convection near and east of the estimated center. A slightly-elevated observing site on Sand Key, near Key West Florida, recently reported a peak 1-minute wind of 49 kt with a gust to 56 kt. This supports the current intensity estimate of 50 kt. Recent WSR-88D Doppler velocities from the Key West radar suggest that the storm could be a little stronger than that. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into the storm has been delayed due to bad weather at the Keesler base, but is rescheduled to investigate Elsa in a few hours. This flight should provide updated information on the intensity of the system. Recently, the storm has been moving a little slower toward the north-northwest and the initial motion is about 340/9 kt. Elsa should move generally northward today and tonight between the western periphery of a subtropical ridge and an area of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A gradual turn toward the north-northeast should occur on Wednesday as the system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge. Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of a trough over the eastern United States and eastern Canada. This will take the system across the southeastern United States within the next couple of days, near the coast of New England in about 3 days and near or over Atlantic Canada in 4 days or so. The official forecast is nearly the same as the previous one and, again, very close to the model consensus. The environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is not ideal for strengthening, with moderate westerly shear and some dry mid-level air. However, upper-level divergence ahead of a trough over the east-central Gulf could result in some intensification of the system during the next 12-24 hours. The official forecast continues to show the cyclone nearing hurricane strength while it approaches the north Florida Gulf coast, but this is at the high end of the numerical intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves near or along the western Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across coastal Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Florida Keys and are expected to spread northward along much of the west coast of the state through Wednesday morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Georgia coast and portions of the South Carolina coast, where tropical storm conditions are possible late Wednesday and early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 24.9N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 26.6N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1200Z 33.8N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0000Z 36.7N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 10/1200Z 48.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 25
2021-07-06 16:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 061443 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WEST-CENTRAL CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 82.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for Cuba. The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida, has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 82.8 West. Elsa is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a generally northward motion is expected today and tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. On Wednesday morning, Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Elsa could be near hurricane strength before it makes landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after Elsa moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. A C-MAN station at Sand Key, Florida, recently measured a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) gusting to 64 mph (104 km/h). The Key West International Airport also recently measured a peak sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) gusting to 59 mph (95 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region tonight and early Wednesday, where hurricane conditions are possible. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Brown/Papin
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2021-07-06 16:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 061443 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) X(23) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) X(29) X(29) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) X(24) X(24) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) X(22) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 18(24) X(24) X(24) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) X(22) X(22) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 11(22) X(22) X(22) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 10(25) X(25) X(25) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 7(25) X(25) X(25) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 20(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 16(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 7( 8) 35(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 4( 4) 30(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 2 8(10) 31(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 7( 7) 39(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 38(38) 29(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 9( 9) 16(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) THE VILLAGES 34 1 41(42) 14(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) THE VILLAGES 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 1 13(14) 8(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) COCOA BEACH FL 34 3 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PATRICK AFB 34 3 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) FT PIERCE FL 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 34 56 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) FT MYERS FL 34 41 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) VENICE FL 34 83 11(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) VENICE FL 50 14 20(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) VENICE FL 64 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 20 67(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) TAMPA FL 50 1 28(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) TAMPA FL 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 68(71) 4(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 28(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) APALACHICOLA 34 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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