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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-11-05 21:52:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 052052 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.6W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.6W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.3N 124.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.7N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.0N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.4N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.9N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 123.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-11-05 16:08:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 133 WTPZ25 KNHC 051508 CCA TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 CORRECTED TO HAVE 72 H POINT AS DISSIPATED THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 122.9W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 122.9W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.5N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.8N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.2N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 122.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-11-05 16:04:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051503 CCA TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 8...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 Corrected to say dissipated for the 72 h forecast. Odalys appears to be losing the battle against high vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment as an overnight convective burst has been sheared off to the northeast. Only a small region of cloud tops colder than -60 C remains about 100 nm away from the exposed low-level circulation center. The latest satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB have decreased and it is possible that Odalys has already started weakening. However, the current intensity will be held at 45 kt for this advisory out of respect for the overnight ASCAT data. The ongoing strong southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to continue for the foreseeable future, and dry air will continue to envelop the circulation. Marginal sea surface temperatures of 26 C may be able to support occasional convective bursts, but these should be short lived and disorganized, and the low-level wind field should gradually spin down without any organized convection. The latest intensity forecast shows Odalys becoming a remnant low by 36 h, but this may occur sooner if convection does not refire near the center. Odalys is gradually bending more westward at 285/6 kt as it decouples from convection associated with the mid-level center and begins to be influenced primarily by the low-level steering flow. A turn due west and then west-southwest is expected over the next 24 h following the northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous one and is near the track guidance consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 18.3N 122.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 17.5N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 16.8N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0000Z 16.2N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-11-05 15:52:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 051452 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 9 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Odalys Public Advisory Number 8
2020-11-05 15:51:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 051451 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 ...ODALYS DECOUPLING FROM ITS CONVECTION... ...WEAKENING EXPECTED TO COMMENCE SHORTLY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 122.9W ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 122.9 West. Odalys is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This forward motion is expected to continue today followed by a turn west and then southwest tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast over the next 24 hours and Odalys is expected to become a remnant low by Friday evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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