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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 27
2020-10-25 16:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 251551 CCA TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 CORRECTED TO ADD HURRICANE WIND RADII THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.3N 49.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 140SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT.......200NE 300SE 330SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 550SE 680SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.3N 49.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 51.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 47.0N 41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 130SE 110SW 60NW. 34 KT...260NE 320SE 360SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 51.5N 31.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 110SE 140SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 400SW 400NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 56.4N 23.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 110SE 140SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 400SW 400NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.3N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 27
2020-10-25 15:59:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 251458 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 Epsilon continues its extratropical transition, as the cloud tops near the center of circulation are warming while the cloud pattern continues to expand over the northern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt for this advisory based on early morning ASCAT data. Partial data from a more recent scatterometer pass also suggested this intensity. The cyclone is now moving over waters of only 17 degrees C and the waters ahead of the system are even cooler than that. Epsilon is also interacting with a baroclinic zone as evidenced by a large area of cool and stable air stratocumulus wrapping around the southwestern portion of the circulation. These factors should cause what remains of the inner-core convection to weaken over the next several hours, and the system should complete its extratropical transition by tonight. The post-tropical cyclone will remain large and powerful for the next day or so until it is absorbed by another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic in about 36-48 h. Epsilon is moving quickly east-northeastward at around 30 kt. The cyclone is expected to accelerate even more today, with a fast east-northeastward or northeastward motion expected until the system is absorbed by the other low. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one and lies in the middle of the tightly clustered consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 44.3N 49.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 47.0N 41.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1200Z 51.5N 31.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0000Z 56.4N 23.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-10-25 15:58:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 251457 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 Although the cloud pattern of the storm is not well-organized and somewhat elongated zonally, the system is producing very vigorous deep convection, particularly over the southern portion of the circulation. Cirrus cloud motions show that the upper-level outflow is well-defined. The current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak values from both TAFB and SAB, and pending another Hurricane Hunter mission into the system this afternoon. The center is difficult to locate at this time, and the best estimate for motion is quasi-stationary. A high pressure area developing near Florida should induce a general northwestward motion over the next couple of days. Later, a shortwave trough approaching from the west is likely to cause Zeta to turn northward and north-northeastward while it nears the northern Gulf Coast in 72-84 hours. The official track forecast lies between the GFS solution which is farther east and the ECMWF prediction which lies farther south and west. Given the favorable upper-level outflow pattern and very high oceanic heat content over the northwestern Caribbean, strengthening is likely until the center moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late tomorrow. Zeta should be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan. The official intensity forecast for the next 36 hours is close to the model consensus. After Zeta moves into the central Gulf of Mexico, increasing southwesterly shear and diminishing oceanic heat content are expected to prevent strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast over the Gulf is above the latest model consensus. Although not explicitly shown in the official forecast, the unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the northern Gulf of Mexico could cause Zeta to weaken by the time the center nears the northern Gulf coast. However, users are reminded that these intensity forecasts are subject to uncertainty. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early Tuesday, with hurricane conditions possible. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western Cuba on Monday. 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. 3. Zeta could be at or just below hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.8N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.4N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 19.2N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 20.3N 86.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 21.9N 88.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 24.0N 90.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 35.0N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-10-25 15:55:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 251455 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) X(24) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) X(28) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) X(29) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) X(30) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) X(31) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) X(29) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 22(34) X(34) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 19(51) X(51) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) X(20) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) X(26) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 9(43) X(43) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 3( 3) 51(54) 12(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 17(17) 11(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) X(34) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 26(36) X(36) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 4
2020-10-25 15:55:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 251455 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS TODAY AND MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 83.8W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 83.8 West. Zeta is nearly stationary, but a generally northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Zeta could become a hurricane by the time it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches are possible across southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches. By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan peninsula late Monday, and could occur in the warning area in Western Cuba on Monday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Watch area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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