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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-10-25 15:55:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 251455 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS...INCLUDING COZUMEL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PINAR DEL RIO CUBA * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 83.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 83.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 83.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.4N 84.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.2N 85.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.3N 86.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.9N 88.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.0N 90.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 35.0N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 83.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 27
2020-10-25 15:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 251454 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 ...EPSILON RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.3N 49.4W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 44.3 North, longitude 49.4 West. Epsilon is moving toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A faster east-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected later tonight through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today and Epsilon is forecast to become a large and powerful extratropical cyclone by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 0 miles (0 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, portions of the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2020-10-25 15:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 251454 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 27
2020-10-25 15:53:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 251452 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.3N 49.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT.......100NE 140SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT.......200NE 300SE 330SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 550SE 680SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.3N 49.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 51.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 47.0N 41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 130SE 110SW 60NW. 34 KT...260NE 320SE 360SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 51.5N 31.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 110SE 140SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 400SW 400NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 56.4N 23.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 110SE 140SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 400SW 400NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.3N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 3A
2020-10-25 12:58:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 251157 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 83.8W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 MPH...0 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 83.8 West. Zeta is nearly stationary, but a slow generally northwestward motion is expected later today. A turn toward the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are forecast by Monday, followed by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 to 72 hours, and Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly southeast of the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall bands will be expansive along and east-northeast of Zetas track. Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, Southern Florida and the Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday. By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by Monday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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