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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 45
2020-09-23 17:09:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 231434 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM DIGBY TO ECUM SECUM NOVA SCOTIA. THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO DIGBY NOVA SCOTIA, AND FROM WEST OF BRULE TO TIDNISH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEAT COVE * PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEAT COVE TO BRULE NOVA SCOTIA * MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.0N 61.3W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 720SE 990SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.0N 61.3W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.0N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 49.5N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 54.5N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...390NE 250SE 90SW 280NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.0N 61.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 45
2020-09-23 17:09:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 231436 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 Surface observations indicate that Teddy made landfall this morning near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia, near 1200 UTC with estimated maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum pressure of 964 mb. Since then, the storm has continued to race across Nova Scotia and is slowly weakening. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt. Teddy should move north-northeastward across the Gulf of St. Lawrence this afternoon then move near Newfoundland by tonight. After passing east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy merging with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. No significant changes were made to the previous track or intensity forecasts, which are similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days. Key Messages: 1. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy today is large destructive waves along the southeastern coast of Nova Scotia. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected through Thursday. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 46.0N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 24/0000Z 49.5N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 24/1200Z 54.5N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Public Advisory Number 45
2020-09-23 17:09:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 231435 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 ...TEDDY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ECUM SECUM NOVA SCOTIA... ...STILL FORECAST TO PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...46.0N 61.3W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Digby to Ecum Secum Nova Scotia. The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch from Fort Lawrence to Digby Nova Scotia, and from west of Brule to Tidnish. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Ecum Secum to Meat Cove * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Brule Nova Scotia * Magdalen Islands Quebec * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Teddy made landfall near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia, near 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph (100 km/h), and a minimum central pressure of 964 mb (28.47 inches). At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy was located near latitude 46.0 North, longitude 61.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center will move over the Gulf of St. Lawrence this afternoon, be near Newfoundland early tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy should slowly weaken today before dissipating on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) were recently reported at Hart Island along the eastern coast of Nova Scotia. The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible over portions of eastern Nova Scotia east of Ecum Secum. Near the coast, large and destructive waves are likely. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia warning area and are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas today. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 45
2020-09-23 17:09:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 231435 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BURGEO NFLD 34 71 X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) PTX BASQUES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PTX BASQUES 50 29 X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) EDDY POINT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 50 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-23 17:09:24| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Sep 23 2020
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