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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 41A
2020-09-22 19:44:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 221744 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 41A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 200 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 ...EXTREMELY LARGE TEDDY TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.3N 64.1W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia * Magdalen Islands Quebec * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 40.3 North, longitude 64.1 West. Teddy is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east of Labrador on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although some weakening is likely later today and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia. Teddy is an extremely large hurricane. Satellite-derived winds and a recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission indicate that hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 550 miles (890 km). Buoy 44150, located about 150 n mi north of the center, recently reported a significant wave height of 36 ft (11 m). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches) based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area soon. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas late today or early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 41
2020-09-22 17:00:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 221459 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 Teddy is in the late stages of extratropical transition. The hurricane has taken on a large comma shape in satellite images, with a huge dry-air intrusion aloft near the center and a cold front on the western side of the cyclone. While it is tempting to call it an extratropical now, temperature data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Teddy has maintained a significant warm core, and the strongest winds on the southwestern side appear to be more related to the cyclone and not the front. Lastly, deep convection is trying to re-develop near the center, another indication that the transition is not yet done. Thus Teddy will remain a hurricane on this advisory. The initial wind speed is set to 90 kt, a blend of the 122-kt flight-level winds, 75-kt SFMR values, and global model analyses since much of this large hurricane is not being sampled. Teddy should transition into a post-tropical cyclone by the time it reaches Nova Scotia and steadily weaken as it moves over the cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream. The cyclone should turn northward today and north-northeastward tomorrow ahead of the next trough in the mid-latitudes. This will take Post-Tropical Teddy over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland during the next couple of days, with the cyclone likely being absorbed into a larger extratropical cyclone west of Greenland in 2-3 days. There are no significant changes to report, except to show a sooner dissipation, which is consistent with the latest global models solutions. The hurricane-force and tropical-storm-force winds fields, plus 12-ft seas area, from Teddy have just about doubled overnight, so it is important to note that hazards will extend much farther than normal from the center of this hurricane. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter reported hurricane-force surface winds 120 n mi northwest of the center, and Canadian buoy 44150 has recently reported 34-ft significant wave heights, with the buoy still about 180 n mi from the center. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late today through Thursday. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia through Wednesday. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 39.6N 63.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 41.8N 64.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 44.8N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 24/0000Z 48.8N 59.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/1200Z 54.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Beta Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-09-22 16:59:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 221458 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Beta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High-resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from San Antonio, Corpus Christi, and Houston, Texas, indicate that Beta has moved a little farther inland and has weakened to a tropical depression. The same data also show that Beta has started a slow drift toward the northeast. Deep convection has waned considerably since the previous advisory, especially during the past few hours, with cloud tops now warmer than -30 deg C, which no longer meets the Dvorak satellite classification criterion. The initial intensity is 30 kt is based on average Doppler velocities of 35-40 kt between 1500-2500 ft ASL just to the southeast and south of Galveston. The initial motion estimate is now 045/02 kt. Steering currents around Beta remain weak. However, water vapor imagery indicates that a broad mid- to upper-level trough over western Texas is moving slowly eastward, and that feature should gradually force Beta east-northeastward later today and tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast on Wednesday and Thursday across Louisiana and Mississippi before dissipating in about 4 days. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, which keeps Beta just inland from the Gulf coast, and lies near a blend of the simple consensus models TVCA and GFEX, and the NOAA corrected-consensus model HCCA. Since Beta's center is forecast to remain just inland for the next 36-48 hours, chances of the cyclone regaining tropical storm status are becoming less likely. As a result, the new official intensity forecast shows Beta remaining a 25-30 kt depression during that time, followed by weakening to a remnant low by 48 hours, and dissipation over Mississippi or Alabama by 96 hours. This is consistent with the various simple and corrected-consensus models. Although Beta is now an inland tropical depression, the National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on the cyclone due to its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and until it becomes clear that re-strengthening into a tropical storm is unlikely. Key Messages: 1. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue for the middle and upper Texas coast today. The slow motion of Beta will continue to produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely. Periods of rainfall will spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible on smaller rivers. 2. Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in above normal high tides, and coastal flooding over the next few days will be slow to recede. For information on the ongoing coastal flooding, please refer to coastal flood products issued by local National Weather Service offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 28.9N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 23/0000Z 29.0N 96.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1200Z 29.6N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0000Z 30.4N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 31.7N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z 33.1N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 34.4N 88.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-09-22 16:58:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 221458 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CAMERON LA 34 1 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) JASPER TX 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) KOUNTZE TX 34 2 11(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 12(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GALVESTON TX 34 8 16(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) HOUSTON TX 34 15 11(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) FREEPORT TX 34 20 9(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 4 17(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKPORT TX 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Depression Beta Public Advisory Number 20
2020-09-22 16:58:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221457 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Beta Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...BETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER TEXAS... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 96.7W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ENE OF VICTORIA TEXAS ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WNW OF PALACIOS TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued. Information on ongoing coastal flooding can be found in coastal flood products issued by local National Weather Service offices. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by surface observations, satellites, and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 96.7 West. The depression is drifting toward the northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion toward the east-northeast is expected by this afternoon and tonight. An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with increasing forward speed is expected Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland over southeastern Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana and Mississippi Wednesday night through Friday. Data from surface observations and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today with gradual weakening anticipated through Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: For the middle and upper Texas coast, additional rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated storm totals up to 20 inches is expected. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue today. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely. Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as isolated minor river flooding on smaller rivers. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur through Tuesday near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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