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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 44
2020-09-23 10:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 230841 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 Teddy's deep convection has been diminishing, but based on buoy observations the cyclone still has a strong circulation with a central pressure in the 950's. Assuming a gradual spindown of the system since the earlier aircraft observations, the estimated maximum winds have dropped to just below hurricane strength. The system is expected to traverse Nova Scotia today as a strong extratropical cyclone, and move near Newfoundland by tonight. After passing east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy merging with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The estimated initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/20 kt. Teddy is embedded within a deep-layer trough that is located in the vicinity of Atlantic Canada. The post-tropical cyclone should move north-northeastward on the eastern side of the trough for the next 36-48 hours before it merges with the other low. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also closely follows the corrected multi-model consensus, HCCA. Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone while it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada through tonight. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia today. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 44.5N 62.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 24/0600Z 52.3N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/0600Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Lowell Public Advisory Number 11
2020-09-23 10:41:18| Tropical Depression LIDIA
...LOWELL'S WINDS STRENGTHEN... Location: 19.8°N 119.9°W Max sustained: 50 mph Moving: WNW at 12 mph Min pressure: 1001 mb Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 22 2020
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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-09-23 10:41:18| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020
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Tropical Storm Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-09-23 10:41:18| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
2020-09-23 10:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 230841 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 4 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ILE ST PIERRE 34 60 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) BURGEO NFLD 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) BURGEO NFLD 50 26 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PTX BASQUES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PTX BASQUES 50 71 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) PTX BASQUES 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SABLE ISLAND 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) YARMOUTH NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST JOHN NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST JOHN NB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EASTPORT ME 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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