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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 44
2020-09-23 04:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 230236 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 20.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 20.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 20.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.2N 18.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.4N 17.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.1N 17.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 34.0N 19.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N 21.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.5N 26.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 20.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PAULETTE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 43
2020-09-23 04:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 230236 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 Extratropical transition has been ongoing since last night, with the cyclone's associated rain shield expanding over a great distance in the northern semicircle. In addition, multiple dropsonde observations from the Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters and buoy data show a sharp temperature gradient of nearly 20 degrees F from northwest quadrant to the southeast, indicative of the cyclone's involvement with the strong baroclinic frontal zone. Accordingly, Teddy has become a strong post-tropical extratropical cyclone. Highest flight-level winds recorded this evening were 83 kt about 85 miles northeast of the center and the highest SFMR surface winds were 63 kt. A recent METOP-C scatterometer pass showed sustained winds no higher than 59 kt in the east quadrant. A blend of these data yields an initial intensity of 70 kt for this advisory. Further gradual weakening is forecast through the period as a result of the rapidly decreasing sea surface temperatures (less than 20C) north of the North Wall of the gulf stream. The NHC forecast indicates Teddy approaching the coast of Nova Scotia below hurricane strength, but still as a strong post-tropical extratropical low. Teddy should continue to gradually spin down as the cyclone moves north-northeastward toward Newfoundland. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/16 kt. A north-northeastward turn is forecast later tonight or early Wednesday in response to an approaching mid-latitude shortwave trough moving out of the northeast U.S. Teddy should move over Nova Scotia tomorrow and near the island of Newfoundland, and the adjacent waters of the Gulf of St. Lawrence Wednesday night. Afterward, the post-tropical cyclone will likely be absorbed by an even larger high latitude extratropical cyclone near Greenland. There has been no significant changes made to the NHC forecast track this evening, and it's in best agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late today through Thursday. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia through Wednesday. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 42.8N 63.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 23/1200Z 45.3N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/0000Z 49.8N 58.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 24/1200Z 54.7N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43
2020-09-23 04:35:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 230235 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 40 14(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) BURGEO NFLD 34 58 21(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) BURGEO NFLD 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 80 18(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) PTX BASQUES 50 4 52(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) PTX BASQUES 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 64 18 5(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SYDNEY NS 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 50 64 9(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) SYDNEY NS 64 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SABLE ISLAND 50 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 64 53 X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) YARMOUTH NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 50 51 X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) ST JOHN NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST JOHN NB 50 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) EASTPORT ME 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BAR HARBOR ME 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AUGUSTA ME 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Public Advisory Number 42A
2020-09-23 01:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 191 WTNT35 KNHC 222335 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 42A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 800 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY HEADING TOWARD THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST... ...DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.9N 64.2W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia * Magdalen Islands Quebec * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy was located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 64.2 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 18 mph (29 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east of Labrador on Thursday. Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Although further weakening is likely tonight and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia. A weather station at Brier Island recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h), and a gust of 51 mph (81 km/h). Teddy is an extremely large post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 540 miles (870 km). Buoy 44150, located about 60 n mi north of the center, recently reported a significant wave height of 36 ft (11 m). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia warning area now. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area on Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 42
2020-09-22 22:55:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 222054 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 Teddy is a very impressive cyclone on satellite images this afternoon, even from full-disk images. The hurricane's circulation is over 1000 miles wide, with an enormous distinct comma shape and frontal features especially in the eastern semicircle. As far as what to call the system convection has actually deepened near the center during the past several hours, and an AMSR pass around 1700 UTC showed that the system still had a low-level eye feature. For that reason and for simplicity's sake, the system will remain a hurricane on this advisory, although it is obviously a hybrid low with many characteristics of a non-tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is lowered to 80 kt, assuming the filling trend reported by the last NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission continued. The wind radii are expanded based on ASCAT data, with tropical-storm-force winds over eastern Nova Scotia already. The hurricane is forecast to transition into a post-tropical cyclone later tonight or early tomorrow due to the cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream likely weakening any central convection. Teddy should decay below hurricane-strength before reaching Nova Scotia and steadily weaken as it moves over the even colder waters in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The new intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and is closest to the GFS model. Teddy is moving northward now and should turn north-northeastward tomorrow ahead of the next trough in the mid-latitudes. This will take Post-Tropical Teddy over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland during the next couple of days, with the cyclone likely being absorbed into a larger extratropical cyclone west of Greenland in 2-3 days. There are no significant changes to report, though there has been a slight westward shift of the track near Newfoundland. The hazards from Teddy are extending at quite a distance from the center of this hurricane. In addition to the 500-mile wind radii in the northeastern quadrant, Canadian buoy 44150 has recently reported 42 ft (13 m) significant wave heights, with the buoy still about 90 n mi from the center. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late today through Thursday. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia through Wednesday. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 41.1N 64.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 43.1N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 23/1800Z 47.0N 60.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 24/0600Z 51.5N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/1800Z 56.5N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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