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Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2020-09-21 16:41:50| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2020

Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 15A

2020-09-21 13:54:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 211154 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 700 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 ...SMALL BETA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 95.5W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 95.5 West. Beta is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas and will likely move inland by tonight. Beta is forecast to remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning in portions of the tropical storm warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area later today. RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur today and tonight, near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 36A

2020-09-21 13:52:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 211152 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 36A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 800 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING TEDDY... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 63.0W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lower East Pubnico to Main-a-Dieu Nova Scotia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 63.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). Although some fluctuations in heading are likely, the hurricane is expected to move generally northward through Tuesday evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Wednesday. The center of Teddy will pass east of Bermuda today, and then approach Nova Scotia late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin mid-week, but the cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone when it nears Nova Scotia by Wednesday morning. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 36

2020-09-21 10:42:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 210842 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 Where Teddy once had a ragged eye has now become a dry slot, an indication that its eyewall is becoming less defined. Some southwesterly shear and the fact that Teddy is beginning to move over the cold wake of former Hurricane Paulette are probably contributing to the degradation of Teddy's structure. Based on this trend, the intensity estimate is lowered slightly to 85 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Teddy later this morning and will give a better assessment of the hurricane's winds. For now, little change was made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. Teddy is beginning to interact with a large deep layer trough and frontal system that will play a big role in its evolution during the next couple of days. For the remainder of today, Teddy should remain fairly distinct from the front, moving east and northeast of Bermuda. As it begins to merge with that system on Tuesday, a slight deflection toward the north-northwest is likely, and it is possible Teddy could quickly become post-tropical if it merges with the front at that time. The most recent ECMWF and GFS runs suggest that Teddy will maintain a warm core a little longer than than that as it moves over the Gulf Stream. Regardless of its exact classification, once Teddy moves north of the Gulf Stream and over much cooler waters, it is forecast to weaken below hurricane strength and become extratropical. Even with a decrease in its highest winds, Teddy will likely be producing a large area of tropical-storm-force winds when it approaches Atlantic Canada in a couple of days. After moving over Atlantic Canada, Teddy is expected to accelerate northeastward and ahead of, and then merge with, another mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest. Teddy's size will likely increase substantially during the next couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with the aforementioned frontal system. Gale force winds are likely along portions of the near shore waters of the northeast U.S. Please see products from your local office for more information about marine hazards. Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water. Key Messages: 1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda today. Wind gusts near tropical-storm-force have been reported on the island and tropical storm conditions could continue into Monday evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 30.3N 63.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 32.6N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 36.7N 62.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 39.7N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 42.6N 63.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 23/1800Z 46.2N 61.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 24/0600Z 50.0N 57.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-09-21 10:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210842 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Beta is struggling this morning. Satellite images show that much of the deep convection associated with the storm has dissipated, and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the winds have decreased. Based on a combination of flight-level and SFMR data from the aircraft, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt. This estimate is also in agreement with an ASCAT pass from a few hours ago that showed peak winds close to 40 kt. It is also worth noting that the tropical-storm-force winds are largely confined to the northern half of the circulation, and these winds should spread across the Texas coast later this morning. Beta has been moving due westward during the past several hours, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 270/5 kt. In the short term, Beta is expected to resume a west-northwestward motion at a forward speed of about 5 kt, and that motion should take the tropical storm to the Texas coast by tonight. The models differ on how far inland Beta gets over Texas, but the majority of the guidance shows the cyclone stalling just inland on Tuesday in weak steering currents. The combination of an approaching shortwave trough and an amplifying ridge over Florida should cause Beta to turn northeastward along or near the Texas coast late Tuesday and Wednesday, and then farther inland over Louisiana on Thursday. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and remains near the various consensus aids. The tropical storm is certainty feeling the effects of dry and stable air that has wrapped into the circulation. The combination of the dry air mass and 15-20 kt of southwesterly wind shear should limit strengthening through landfall tonight. Steady weakening is forecast after that time due to the storm interacting with land and stronger southwesterly shear. The models are in quite good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas coast later this morning and continue into Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 27.7N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 28.0N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 28.4N 96.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/1800Z 28.7N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/0600Z 28.9N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/1800Z 29.4N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0600Z 30.2N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/0600Z 32.8N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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