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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-21 22:50:51| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 38
2020-09-21 22:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 212048 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 ...TEDDY ABOUT TO GET LARGER AND STRONGER NORTH OF BERMUDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 62.0W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence * Magdalen Islands * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required later tonight or on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 62.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is expected tonight followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Tuesday. Teddy should turn to the north-northeast and move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late Wednesday into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is expected to gain strength overnight, but weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone before reaching Nova Scotia. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical-storm-conditions could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2020-09-21 22:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 212048 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 10(29) X(29) X(29) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 32(32) 19(51) X(51) X(51) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 20(68) X(68) X(68) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) X(29) X(29) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 10(10) 67(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 34(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 11(11) 58(69) 6(75) X(75) X(75) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 5(34) X(34) X(34) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 6( 6) 38(44) 26(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X 5( 5) 41(46) 31(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 8( 8) 22(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) EASTPORT ME 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 38
2020-09-21 22:47:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 212047 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH * NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE * MAGDALEN ISLANDS * PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 62.0W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......240NE 240SE 180SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 330SE 420SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 62.0W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 36.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 50 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 160NW. 34 KT...410NE 320SE 280SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.5N 63.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...410NE 320SE 280SW 280NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.2N 63.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...250NE 280SE 250SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 210SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 50.5N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 140SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 54.5N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 250SE 150SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 62.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-09-21 22:42:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 212042 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Beta's convective cloud structure has continued to erode since the previous advisory as cold-air stratocumulus clouds have wrapped around the entire and into the system center. Most of the cloud tops are barely reaching the freezing level, with the exception of a small convective burst that has recently developed near and to the northwest of the low-level center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt and is based on data from the last Air Force Reserve reconnaissance leg that indicated peak SFMR surface winds of 40-42 kt northwest of the center and a dropsonde-measured central pressure of 999-1000 mb. The initial motion estimate 310/04 kt. Beta is expected to move onshore the central Texas coast later tonight, and then stalling along or just inland from the coast during the 12-24 hour period when the steering currents collapse due to a complete break down of a weak ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. A weak trough to the west of the cyclone is then forecast to nudge Beta east-northeastward toward the Gulf of Mexico in the 36-60 hour period, with the cyclone possibly reaching the warm Gulf waters by 48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, the approaching mid-level trough Beta is expected to move Beta a little faster toward the northeast until the cyclone dissipates over the Lower Mississippi Valley area by day 5. The latest NHC track guidance has shifted a little farther to right or east of the previous forecast track, with most of the models now taking Beta back out over the western Gulf of Mexico by 24 hours. As a result, the new NHC official track forecast has been nudged a little farther to the right of the previous, but remains to the left or west of the NOAA-HCCA consensus model and the UKMET model. West-southwesterly wind shear of 15-20 kt is expected to affect Beta for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual increase in the shear thereafter. That unfavorable flow regime, along with land interaction, should induce a slow weakening trend throughout the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast remains a little above the available model guidance through 48 hours since Beta is forecast to remain very close to or over the Gulf of Mexico where convective rain bands containing tropical-storm-force winds could possibly move onshore the central and upper Texas coastal areas. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas coast later this evening and continue into Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 28.2N 96.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 28.5N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/1800Z 28.7N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0600Z 28.9N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST 48H 23/1800Z 29.2N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 24/0600Z 29.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 24/1800Z 30.8N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1800Z 34.1N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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