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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-09-22 10:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220856 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED EAST OF SABINE PASS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SARGENT TEXAS TO SABINE PASS INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO SABINE PASS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 96.7W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 96.7W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 96.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.8N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.1N 95.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.8N 94.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.8N 92.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 32.1N 90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.6N 89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 96.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 40
2020-09-22 10:51:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 851 WTNT45 KNHC 220850 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 Recent satellite imagery shows that the central convection is diminishing, with a comma-like cloud pattern developing. The current intensity is held at 85 kt based on continuity from the earlier aircraft mission. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Teddy later today which should provide a good estimate of the intensity. Teddy is moving along the northern part of the Gulf Stream and should begin to move into cooler waters later today. Therefore weakening is expected over the next couple of days. However, baroclinic forcing should keep the cyclone at or near hurricane strength while it approaches Nova Scotia. The official intensity forecast is above the model consensus to qualitatively account for baroclinic effects. After 72 hours, or sooner, post-tropical Teddy should become absorbed or merge with a large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. Teddy has accelerated somewhat and is now moving north-northeastward near 24 kt. The hurricane is moving on the eastern side of a mid-tropospheric cyclone centered off the northeastern U.S. coast. Teddy should continue its north-northwestward motion today and then turn north-northeastward as the mid-tropospheric cyclone shifts northeastward. This will take post-tropical Teddy over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland during the next couple of days. The official forecast is close to the corrected dynamical model consensus, or HFIP, and similar to the previous NHC track. The wind field of Teddy should continue to expand today and tonight, and the extent of 12-ft seas is also growing. See the Key Message regarding swells due to Teddy. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late today through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between today and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 38.4N 62.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 40.9N 63.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 43.9N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/0600Z 52.0N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0600Z 61.0N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2020-09-22 10:51:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 220850 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 2( 2) 27(29) 6(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 5( 5) 47(52) 9(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PTX BASQUES 34 X 14(14) 56(70) 7(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) 27(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 3 59(62) 27(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) EDDY POINT NS 50 X 7( 7) 37(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) EDDY POINT NS 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X 40(40) 44(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) SYDNEY NS 50 X 2( 2) 33(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 44 32(76) 6(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) SABLE ISLAND 50 X 13(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SABLE ISLAND 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 27 58(85) 3(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) HALIFAX NS 50 X 40(40) 7(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) HALIFAX NS 64 X 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) YARMOUTH NS 34 15 25(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MONCTON NB 34 X 16(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ST JOHN NB 34 2 11(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) EASTPORT ME 34 4 14(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 40
2020-09-22 10:50:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220850 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 ...TEDDY HEADED FOR ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.4N 62.4W ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia * Magdalen Islands Quebec * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 62.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the north-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although some weakening is likely later today and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas late today or early Wednesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 40
2020-09-22 10:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 220850 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH NOVA SCOTIA * NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA * MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC * PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 62.4W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. 50 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..720NE 480SE 660SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 62.4W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.9N 63.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 50 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 180NW. 34 KT...400NE 320SE 250SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 43.9N 62.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...320NE 290SE 250SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 250SE 210SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 52.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 170SE 190SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 190SE 190SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 61.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 200SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N 62.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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