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Tropical Depression Rene Public Advisory Number 8
2020-09-09 04:53:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090253 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 200 AM CVT Wed Sep 09 2020 ...RENE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 29.3W ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 29.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene is expected to regain tropical storm strength later this morning, and become a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-09 04:51:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090251 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 Microwave and satellite data suggest that vertical shear is weakening Paulette. The center is near the southern side of a large thunderstorm cluster, with the bulk of deep convection in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. A recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt, a little lower than the other satellite estimates, and 50 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed. With Paulette already on a weakening trend, it seems that the window for significant strengthening has closed. More likely, a gradual decay of the storm is anticipated due to moderate or strong shear during the next few days. This shear could abate by the end of the forecast period due to Paulette moving around the northeastern side of a large mid-to-upper level low, which is a common position for the re-intensification of a tropical cyclone after encountering the mid-oceanic trough. The new forecast is lowered from the previous one for the first few days and then raised slightly at the longer ranges. This is consistent with a blend of the intensity model consensus, leaning toward the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance at the end. The storm is moving northwestward at about 8 kt. There has been some convergence of the model guidance during the next few days as Paulette should move west-northwestward tomorrow and westward on Thursday around a mid-level ridge. Thus, little change has been made from the previous forecast during the first 48-72h. Afterwards, the forecast is shifted to the north by 45-60 n mi under the assumption that Paulette stays coherent as a tropical cyclone and takes a turn to the northwest this weekend on the eastern flank of the aforementioned mid-to-upper level low. The new track forecast is northeast of the model consensus and places less emphasis on models, like the 12Z ECMWF, which show Paulette staying weaker and missing the full influence of the low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 19.2N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 19.8N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 20.2N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 20.6N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 20.8N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 21.1N 52.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 21.9N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 24.4N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 27.5N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-09 04:51:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090251 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 200 AM CVT Wed Sep 09 2020 Rene's circulation remains fairly robust based on a 08/2148Z ASCAT-A overpass. However, the overall convective pattern has eroded significantly, and this is reflected in the ASCAT scatterometer wind data only showing surface winds of about 25 kt. Allowing for some undersampling, plus a recent increase in convection near the center, the intensity has only been lowered to 30 kt for this advisory. Rene remains beneath a pronounced upper-level anticyclone and outflow is fairly symmetrical in all quadrants. The initial motion is 285/14 kt. There continues to be no significant change to previous forecast track or reasoning. Rene is expected to move generally west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next couple of days, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest on Friday and a motion toward the north on Saturday and Sunday. The latest NHC model guidance is in decent agreement on this developing steering flow pattern, thus the new NHC track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCA, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA. Although Rene has weakened, a burst of strong convection with cloud tops colder than -80C has developed over and to the west of the center, while a fragmented band of convection has formed in the northern semicircle. These features strongly suggest that Rene is poised to restrengthen soon. Sea-surface temperatures are expected to be 26.0-26.5 deg C in the 24-60 h period, which are only marginal for strengthening to occur. However, mid-level humidity values are forecast to be near 70 percent and the cyclone is expected to remain under a favorable upper-level anticyclone during that time. Given these factors, slow but steady intensification is forecast, with Rene still expected to become a hurricane in 2-3 days. Thereafter, strong westerly to west-northwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 25-30 kt is expected to cause Rene to weaken significantly on days 4 and 5. The new official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly lower than the previous intensity forecast, and is along the extreme upper portion of the guidance envelope and is above the intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 17.0N 29.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 17.5N 31.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 18.4N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 19.3N 35.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 20.5N 38.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 22.1N 39.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 24.2N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 28.5N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 30.2N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-09 04:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090250 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 ...PAULETTE IS A LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 45.0W ABOUT 1400 MI...2250 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 45.0 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly faster motion toward the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday, a westward motion is forecast on Thursday, followed by a turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest by late Friday. Satellite-derived data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tomorrow, with slow weakening anticipated on Thursday and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-09-09 04:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 090250 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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