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Tropical Depression Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-07 10:44:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 070844 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X 14(14) 18(32) X(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) RIBIERA GRANDE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PRAIA CVI 34 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SANTA MARIA CV 34 6 23(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SANTA MARIA CV 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-07 10:44:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070844 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 20.3W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Cabo Verde Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Verde Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 20.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to pass near or over the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over the eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and spread westward across the remainder of those islands tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM CVT. Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-07 10:44:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070844 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO VERDE ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 20.3W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 20.3W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 19.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.6N 22.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.0N 24.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.4N 27.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.8N 30.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.4N 32.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.1N 35.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 19.7N 39.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 22.4N 43.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 20.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Remnants of Julio Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-07 10:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070839 TCDEP5 Remnants Of Julio Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 07 2020 Moderate easterly shear has continued to take a toll on the compact tropical cyclone. In fact, recent satellite imagery and ASCAT data indicate that the small circulation has opened up into a trough of low pressure. Therefore, Julio has dissipated and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. Julios demise occurred much quicker than forecast, owing to the difficulty in predicting the intensity (both up and down) of small tropical cyclones. The remnants are moving westward around the northern portion of a broad area of low pressure to the southwest of Socorro Island, and the remnants should be absorbed within that system later today. The global models indicate that moderate to strong easterly shear will persist over the larger low pressure area in which Julio is being absorbed, and this will likely prevent significant development of that system over the next few days. This is last NHC advisory on this system. For additional information on the remnants of Julio please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 19.5N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Remnants of Julio Public Advisory Number 7
2020-09-07 10:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 070838 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Remnants Of Julio Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 07 2020 ...JULIO DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 112.6W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Recent satellite wind data show that Julio has degenerated into a trough of low pressure. At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Julio were located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 112.6 West. The remnants are moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a westward or west-southwestward motion is expected today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast and the remnants are expected to be absorbed by a broad area of low pressure located to the south the system. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants of Julio please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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