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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-08 10:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080835 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 GOES-16 Proxy-VIS and enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery reveals that Paulette's cloud pattern has continued to improve during the past several hours. Specifically, the developing inner core is much more symmetric with new bursts of deep convection (-76C cloud tops) near the surface circulation center. Subsequently, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates support an initial intensity of 45 kt. The global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance indicate increasing southwesterly shear commencing later today. So, only modest strengthening is shown in the NHC foreast during next 24 hours. On Friday, the shear stiffens and becomes less diffluent as the cyclone approaches the high amplitude mid-Atlantic TUTT. Therefore, Gradual weakening is expected to occur at that time. Beyond day 3, there are some mixed signals, specifically in the GFS/FV3 and ECMWF SHIPS output. The GFS/FV3 continues to indicate strong southwesterly shear through day 5 further weakening Paulette to a depression around day 4. The ECMWF SHIPS, however, shows a more southerly and diffluent upper wind pattern supporting reintensification after day 4. The intensity forecast sides with that latter solution and also agrees with the HCCA intensity multi-model indicating the same intensity trend. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325/5 kt. The rather weak synoptic steering pattern consists of a large mid- to upper-level low just west of the Canary Islands and ridging to the northwest of the cyclone. During the next couple of days, the large-scale models show the upper low filling and lifting northeastward, allowing the subtropical ridge to build in behind the departing upper low from the western Atlantic. This change in the pattern should cause Paulette to turn west-northwestward on Wednesday and continue moving in this general motion through early Saturday. Through the remaining portion of the period, the global models indicate a major shortwave trough moving off of the northeast coast of the U.S. and breaking down the western extent of the subtropical ridge/Bermuda high. This growing weakness in the ridge should cause Paulette to turn toward the northwest early Sunday. The official track forecast is a little bit slower and to the right of the previous forecast after day 3, and is close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 18.1N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 18.6N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 19.5N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 20.2N 46.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 20.5N 48.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 20.8N 50.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 21.3N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 22.9N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 25.4N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-08 10:35:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 080834 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 6
2020-09-08 10:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 080834 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 ...PAULETTE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 42.8W ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 42.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and should continue in this general motion with a faster forward speed later today, then move west-northwestward Wednesday through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, with little change in strength expected afterward through Thursday. Some weakening is expected Thursday evening and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-08 10:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 080834 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 42.8W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 42.8W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 42.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.6N 43.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.2N 46.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.5N 48.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.8N 50.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.3N 51.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 22.9N 54.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.4N 57.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 42.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-09-08 07:50:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080550 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 ...RENE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM CVT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 24.0W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF SAO NICOLAU CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF SANTO ANTAO CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Verde Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM CVT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 24.0 West. Rene is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a motion toward the west to west-northwest is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Rene will pass over the central Cabo Verde Islands this morning and over the western Cabo Verde Islands this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by gradual strengthening tonight into Thursday, with Rene forecast to become a hurricane in two or three days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. Sal, Cabo Verde Islands, recently reported sustained winds of 32 mph (52 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions occurring over the eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands will spread westward across the remainder of the Cabo Verde Islands this morning through this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Rene are expected to spread westward across the Cabo Verde Islands today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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