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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-06 10:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060831 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.0W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.0W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.6N 108.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.9N 112.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N 113.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.2N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-06 04:51:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060251 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020 Satellite imagery, including recently received microwave overpasses, shows that Julio has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with the small low-level circulation center is located near the eastern edge of the small area of central convection. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on continuity and a satellite intensity estimated from TAFB. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/15 kt. The latest global models runs continue to have trouble resolving Julio, but overall the cyclone is embedded in an east-southeasterly flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. A general west- northwestward motion should continue with a decrease in forward speed until the system dissipates. The new forecast track again leans more toward the ECMWF model, which does the best job of resolving Julio. The tropical storm will be affected by moderate to strong easterly wind shear for the next day or two, and only sight strengthening is likely during that time. While the shear is forecast to diminish after 24-36 h, the cyclone will encounter a drier and more stable air mass at that time, which should lead to the dissipation of the small system. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it lies below the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.6N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 106.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 18.5N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 19.4N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 20.3N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 21.1N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Julio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-09-06 04:51:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 060251 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Julio Public Advisory Number 2
2020-09-06 04:50:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 060250 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julio Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020 ...JULIO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 104.2W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julio was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 104.2 West. Julio is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with some decrease in forward speed, Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two. Weakening should begin by early next week and Julio is forecast to dissipate within 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-06 04:50:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060250 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 104.2W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 104.2W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 103.5W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 106.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.5N 108.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.4N 110.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.3N 110.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.1N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 104.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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