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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-07 22:30:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 072030 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 ...PAULETTE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 42.4W ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 42.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected tonight. Paulette is then forecast to move a little faster and generally westward on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Modest strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-07 22:30:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 849 WTNT22 KNHC 072030 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.4W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.4W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 42.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.9N 42.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.8N 43.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.6N 45.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.8N 48.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.1N 50.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 21.8N 53.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 42.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Public Advisory Number 2A
2020-09-07 19:34:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071733 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 ...DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THOSE ISLANDS TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM CVT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 21.5W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Verde Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM CVT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 21.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to pass near or over the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over the eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and spread westward across the remainder of those islands tonight. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to spread westward across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-07 16:39:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 071439 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 Visible imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the circulation of Paulette is quite elongated from southwest to northeast. However, the ASCAT data indicated that winds up to tropical-storm-force were present, and this was corroborated by a 35 kt Dvorak-based intensity estimate from TAFB. Paulette is the 16th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the earliest 16th named storm of any Atlantic season by 10 days. The previous record was Philippe, which formed on September 17, 2005. Although it is elongated, the tropical storm's structure seems to have improved over the past few hours, with convection increasing in both coverage and organization. Although moderate southerly shear and some dry environmental air appear to be limiting factors, most of the intensity guidance suggests that modest strengthening is likely for the next couple of days. Near the end of the week, the models indicate that Paulette's winds will plateau or possibly decrease. This appears to be the result of increasing southwesterly shear associated with a upper-level trough that is forecast to deepen over the central Atlantic on Thursday and Friday. The official intensity forecast remains very near the multi-model consensus. Paulette has moved very little during the past few hours, but a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume shortly. Fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge over the western and central Atlantic will likely cause Paulette's exact speed and heading to fluctuate during the next several says, but the guidance agrees that it should generally head northwestward through the end of the week. It is likely that the stronger Paulette gets, the farther north it will move since the aforementioned upper-level trough will have a greater influence on its track. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the previous forecast and the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.2N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 17.9N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 18.7N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 19.6N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 20.3N 48.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 20.7N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 21.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 23.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-09-07 16:37:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 071437 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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