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Hurricane FRED Graphics
2015-08-31 22:51:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 20:42:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 20:50:44 GMT
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Hurricane FRED Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-08-31 22:42:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 312041 TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015 Fred likely peaked in intensity this morning. Microwave data received since the previous advisory shows that the eye has become open over the southern semicircle, however, the center remains embedded in an area of cloud top temperatures below -70C. Although Dvorak T-numbers have changed little since the previous advisory, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 70 kt, based on the degraded inner-core structure. The environment ahead of Fred is expected to become increasingly hostile with marginal sea surface temperatures, increasing southwesterly shear, and less favorable thermodynamic conditions. As a result, steady weakening is predicted. Since Fred is a small tropical cyclone, it is likely to succumb to the shear faster than indicated by the statistical guidance, and the NHC forecast is slightly lower than the SHIPS/LGEM models. Despite warmer SSTs along the forecast track at days 4 and 5, the shear and dry mid-level air are likely to cause Fred to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 310/10 kt. The center of Fred will pass near or over the northwestern Cape Verde Islands through early tonight. A turn toward the west-northwestward is expected on Tuesday as the subtropical ridge to the north of Fred builds westward. A west-northwestward heading should then continue during the remainder of the forecast period. The GFS and ECMWF models remain on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the NHC forecast is near a consensus of these typically reliable models. The NHC forecast at the long-range leans a bit closer to the ECMWF, which shows a weaker Fred moving more westward. Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 17.2N 24.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 18.2N 25.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 19.2N 27.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 20.1N 29.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 20.8N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 22.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 23.2N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 25.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2015-08-31 22:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 312041 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Hurricane FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-08-31 22:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 31 the center of FRED was located near 17.2, -24.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane FRED Public Advisory Number 8
2015-08-31 22:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 312040 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015 ...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 24.6W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM N OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cape Verde Islands For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fred was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 24.6 West. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to pass near or over the northwestern Cape Verde Islands through early tonight, and then move away from the Cape Verde Islands on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, however, Fred is expected to remain a hurricane while it passes near the northwestern Cape Verde Island early tonight. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread over the northwestern Cape Verde Islands through early tonight. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations can be even greater. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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