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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-05-18 04:53:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180253 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0300 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO DUCK NC * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 76.9W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 76.9W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.0N 75.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 35.8N 73.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.4N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 36.0N 67.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.8N 64.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 60SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 31.6N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 76.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BERG
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Summary for Tropical Storm Arthur (AT1/AL012020)
2020-05-18 01:52:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ARTHUR'S OUTER RAINBANDS SKIRTING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sun May 17 the center of Arthur was located near 31.8, -77.0 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Arthur Graphics
2020-05-18 01:52:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 May 2020 23:52:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 May 2020 21:24:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-05-17 22:32:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 172032 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 Arthur's satellite presentation has not changed much since the previous advisory. There are still some fragmented convective bands over the eastern portions of the circulation, but convective activity remains limited over the western half of the storm. A late-arriving ASCAT overpass from around the time of the previous advisory revealed somewhat lower wind speeds than reported by this morning's reconnaissance aircraft. This could be the result of the convection becoming more fragmented after the aircraft sampled that portion of the storm or related to the low bias of the ASCAT instrument. Regardless, the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 40 kt for now. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Arthur this evening. Arthur is forecast to remain within a low wind shear environment and over marginally warm sea surface temperatures through early Monday. These conditions favor some strengthening, however the sprawling structure of the cyclone and nearby dry mid-level air are likely to temper any increase in wind speed. After 36-48 hours, baroclinic forcing is expected to help the post-tropical cyclone maintain its intensity. Later in the period, the frontal gradients decrease which should cause weakening. Recent satellite fixes show that the Arthur is still moving north-northeastward at about 8 kt. The tropical storm should begin to accelerate northeastward overnight as a mid-level trough moves into the eastern United States. By Tuesday night, the steering flow is expected to become westerly which should cause Arthur to turn eastward, then southeastward later in the forecast period. The lastest dynamical track guidance has come into a little better agreement through 36-48 hours with the GFS and ECMWF converging on the previous NHC track. As a result, little change was needed to the first couple of days of the earlier NHC track forecast. After that time, most of the guidance has trended toward a faster eastward and east-southeastward motion, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly in that direction as well. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected there on Monday. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 31.5N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 33.1N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 35.3N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 36.6N 71.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 36.8N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/0600Z 36.3N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z 35.6N 66.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1800Z 34.0N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-05-17 22:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 172031 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 2100 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 7 38(45) 2(47) X(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 12 14(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MOREHEAD CITY 34 10 9(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BALD HEAD ISL 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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