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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-05-17 04:53:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 545 FONT11 KNHC 170253 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0300 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) X(15) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 9(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 4( 4) 21(25) 2(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-05-17 04:53:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170252 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0300 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO DUCK NC * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 77.7W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 77.7W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 77.9W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.5N 77.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.2N 76.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.1N 75.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.2N 73.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.5N 70.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.0N 69.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 38.0N 67.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 77.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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