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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-05-17 05:12:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170311 CCA TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0300 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 CORRECTED 12-HOUR 34-KT WIND RADII CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO DUCK NC * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 77.7W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 77.7W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 77.9W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.5N 77.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.2N 76.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.1N 75.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.2N 73.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.5N 70.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.0N 69.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 38.0N 67.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 77.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Arthur Graphics
2020-05-17 04:56:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 May 2020 02:56:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 May 2020 02:56:03 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Arthur (AT1/AL012020)
2020-05-17 04:55:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION EAST OF FLORIDA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat May 16 the center of Arthur was located near 29.4, -77.7 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 2
2020-05-17 04:55:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170254 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION EAST OF FLORIDA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 77.7W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning could be required for portions of the Watch area by Sunday morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 77.7 West. Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward the north-northeast or northeast is expected tonight and Sunday. After that time, a faster northeastward motion is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, Arthur will remain well offshore the east coast of Florida and Georgia tonight and Sunday, and then move near or east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on reports from the reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Monday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the central and northwest Bahamas, and generally less than 1 inch over south Florida through tonight. The depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over coastal North Carolina Sunday night and Monday. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are expected to spread northward during the next few days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-05-17 04:53:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 127 WTNT41 KNHC 170253 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating the tropical cyclone east of Florida has recently found maximum 925-mb flight-level winds of 45-46 kt to the southeast and east of the center, which equates to surface winds of 34-35 kt, along with uncontaminated SFMR surface wind speeds of 33-36 kt. Based on these data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial motion estimate remains north-northeastward or 030/11 kt. Arthur made a slight northeastward jog earlier this evening, but now appears to have returned to its previous base course. A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours or so, keeping the cyclone well offshore the coasts of Florida and Georgia. A sharp shortwave trough currently moving across the southern Plains is forecast to dig east-southeast to southeastward over the next 48 hours, which will act to accelerate and eject Arthur more poleward. The more the shortwave trough digs and loses latitude, the more Arthur could get pulled closer to the North Carolina Outer Banks as per the GFS and HWRF scenarios. In contrast, the ECMWF and UKMET models show the shortwave losing amplitude quickly and lifting out, which acts to push Arthur farther away from the United States east coast. For now, the new NHC forecast track closely follows the various consensus models, which are about midway between the GFS-HWRF and ECMWF-UKMET solutions. However, the track was adjusted slightly to the right of the previous advisory track due mainly to the more eastward initial position. It should be noted that forecast track uncertainty is typically larger for weak systems like Arthur. Arthur has moved off of the warm waters of the Gulfstream current and currently is passing over a cold pool with SSTs near 24.5 deg C. These cooler waters should prevent any significant strengthening in the very near term. By 24 hours however, the cyclone is forecast to pass back over the warmer waters of the Gulfstream while moving into a very low vertical wind shear regime. These conditions, coupled with some cooler air aloft, should allow more vigorous convection to develop near the center, resulting in more strengthening as Arthur passes near the North Carolina coast. Extratropical transition should occur in about 48-60 hours over the much cooler waters of the North Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the consensus models HCCA and IVCN, and is similar to the previous intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are possible there on Monday. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 29.4N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.5N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 32.2N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 34.1N 75.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 36.2N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 37.5N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0000Z 38.0N 69.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/0000Z 38.0N 67.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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