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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 21

2021-08-21 04:59:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 210259 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING BETWEEN GREENWICH CT TO FLUSHING NY AND FLUSHING TO OYSTER BAY NY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND EAST TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK TO MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK * FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MASTIC NEW YORK * NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * CAPE COD BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK POINT * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET * WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. * COASTAL NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MANASQUAN INLET...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 73.5W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 73.5W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 73.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.3N 72.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.7N 72.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.2N 72.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.4N 73.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.2N 73.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 42.7N 72.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 43.5N 67.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 73.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)

2021-08-21 01:46:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HENRI TURNS NORTHWARD... ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STORM... As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 the center of Henri was located near 31.6, -73.8 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 20A

2021-08-21 01:46:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 202346 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...HENRI TURNS NORTHWARD... ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 73.8W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Oyster Bay to Montauk Point * Greenwich Connecticut to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from west of Mastic Beach to East Rockaway Inlet * North shore of Long Island from west of Oyster Bay to Flushing * Flushing New York to west of Greenwich Connecticut * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Manasquan Inlet New Jersey to west of East Rockaway Inlet New York, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required later tonight or Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 73.8 West. Henri is now moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued forward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through early Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England on Sunday. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Watch Hill, RI to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area and possible in the tropical storm watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri could result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Henri Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

2021-08-21 00:06:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Fri, 20 Aug 2021 22:06:20 GMT

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Tropical Storm Henri Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2021-08-20 23:24:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 20 Aug 2021 21:24:46 GMT

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