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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)

2021-08-21 16:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GRACE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER LAND BUT STILL CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 the center of Grace was located near 19.7, -98.9 with movement WSW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33

2021-08-21 16:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 211454 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 33

2021-08-21 16:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 211454 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...GRACE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER LAND BUT STILL CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 98.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE of CIUDAD DE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for the coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo is replaced by a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Barra del Tordo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 98.9 West. Grace is moving toward the west-southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and a generally westward motion is expected into early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over central and west-central Mexico through tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is expected while the system moves over the mountains of central and west-central Mexico today and tonight, and Grace is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression tonight and dissipate by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding should continue to subside along the coast of Mexico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the tropical storm warning area along the coast of Mexico for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi, 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected through Sunday. Over Ciudad de Mexico, 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 33

2021-08-21 16:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 211453 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO IS REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO BARRA DEL TORDO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 98.9W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 98.9W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 98.3W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.4N 100.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.0N 102.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 98.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)

2021-08-21 13:48:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING HENRI... ...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 the center of Henri was located near 33.6, -72.7 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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