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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 27
2021-08-20 04:59:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200258 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...GRACE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 91.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula east of Progresso. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Progresso to Campeche * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 91.8 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward motion is expected tonight, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Friday, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday or Friday night. Reports from NOAA and Air Force reserve Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely until Grace makes landfall, and the system is expected to regain hurricane strength on Friday. After landfall, Grace should weaken rapidly as it moves into the mountains of central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...an additional to 3 inches of rain overnight, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Lingering areas of flash and urban flooding will be possible into early Friday morning. Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maxim totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall Friday night. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-08-20 04:58:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200258 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EAST OF PROGRESSO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PROGRESSO TO CAMPECHE * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 91.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......140NE 50SE 40SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 60SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 91.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 91.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.8N 93.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.7N 95.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.1N 98.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.6N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 91.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-08-20 04:56:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 200255 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 10(16) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 7(28) 9(37) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 6(16) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25) 7(32) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 8(30) 4(34) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 12(38) 2(40) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 13(48) 2(50) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 15(52) 1(53) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 1(20) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 14(56) 1(57) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) 1(22) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 15(58) 1(59) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25) X(25) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 13(50) 1(51) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) X(18) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 48(50) 12(62) 1(63) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 7(28) X(28) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 56(60) 9(69) X(69) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 5(35) 1(36) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 63(78) 4(82) X(82) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 5(51) X(51) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 3(28) X(28) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 61(69) 8(77) X(77) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 7(40) 1(41) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 10(42) X(42) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 11(46) X(46) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 12(49) 1(50) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 11(56) X(56) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 6(24) X(24) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 13(34) X(34) ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) ALBANY NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 11(33) X(33) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) POUGHKEEPSIE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 57(68) 6(74) X(74) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 6(36) X(36) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 10(40) X(40) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 29(37) 8(45) X(45) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 9(30) X(30) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 9(28) X(28) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) 1(20) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 7(25) X(25) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 1(15) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) X(16) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 3(22) 1(23) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 3(21) X(21) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-20 04:55:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI HOLDING ON AGAINST SHEAR AND MAINTAINING 65-MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 11:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 the center of Henri was located near 29.8, -72.3 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 17
2021-08-20 04:55:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200255 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...HENRI HOLDING ON AGAINST SHEAR AND MAINTAINING 65-MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 72.3W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Watches will likely be required for a portion of this area early Friday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 72.3 West. Henri is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A sharp turn to the northwest and north is anticipated on Friday, followed by an acceleration to the north and north-northeast on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri will remain well offshore of the east coast of the United States over the next couple of days, but it is forecast to be near or over southern New England on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours, but Henri is forecast to intensify into a hurricane by Friday night with additional strengthening expected this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over southeastern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in areas of flash, urban, and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada on Friday and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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