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Tropical Storm Henri Graphics
2021-08-20 11:07:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Aug 2021 09:07:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Aug 2021 09:29:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm Henri Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-08-20 11:04:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 20 Aug 2021 09:04:12 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-20 11:00:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 the center of Henri was located near 30.2, -73.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-08-20 10:59:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200859 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Henri's low-level center has been peaking out from under the north side of the deep convective mass, resulting from continued 20-25 kt of northerly shear. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 55 kt based on T3.5 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Henri still has a motion toward the west-northwest, or 300/8 kt, but it is about ready to make the sharp right turn that we've been expecting. A shortwave trough currently over the central Appalachians is forecast to close off by Saturday, with Henri accelerating northward on the east side of this feature through the weekend. Some global models show Henri merging with the mid-/upper-level low as the cyclone approaches southern New England, which induces a slight bend of Henri's forecast track to the left. Nearly all track models now show Henri's center reaching the coast of southern New England, and the new NHC track forecast has been nudged westward in the direction of HCCA and the other consensus aids. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward across the Gulf of Maine toward Atlantic Canada. The strong shear affecting Henri is forecast to begin weakening later today, and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it could drop to less than 10 kt in about 36 hours. In addition, Henri will be traversing very warm waters for the next 48 hours before it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Therefore, strengthening is anticipated for the next 2 days, with Henri likely to become a hurricane by Saturday. After 48 hours, Henri's expected slower motion over the colder water south of New England should induce quick weakening, but it may not be quick enough to keep Henri from reaching the coast as a hurricane. Faster weakening is anticipated after Henri's center moves over land, and simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that deep convection could dissipate by day 4, making Henri a post-tropical low at that time. Global models suggest that Henri may dissipate by day 5, but for the time being a day 5 point is being kept for continuity. Based on the new forecast, tropical-storm-force wind radii will be approaching the coast of southern New England in about 48 hours. Given the still-present uncertainties in Henri's future track and intensity and the hazards that the storm may cause, storm surge and hurricane watches are now being issued for portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island are increasing. Hurricane and storm surge watches are now in effect for portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding over portions of southern New England Sunday into Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 30.2N 73.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 36.1N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 39.1N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 41.1N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 42.2N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0600Z 43.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/0600Z 45.3N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-08-20 10:58:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 200858 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 10(14) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) 7(25) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) 7(25) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) 4(29) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 9(34) 2(36) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 8(42) 2(44) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) 1(13) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 7(49) 1(50) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 7(52) 1(53) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 7(59) X(59) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 3(25) 1(26) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) 8(54) X(54) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) X(19) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 47(54) 5(59) 1(60) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 2(25) X(25) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 45(60) 3(63) X(63) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 2(29) X(29) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 31(75) 1(76) X(76) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 30(41) 2(43) X(43) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) X(17) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 40(72) 3(75) X(75) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 2(39) X(39) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 30(39) 6(45) 1(46) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 36(45) 6(51) X(51) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 40(47) 7(54) X(54) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) X(19) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 42(56) 5(61) X(61) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 2(26) X(26) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 8(35) X(35) ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ALBANY NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 7(36) X(36) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) POUGHKEEPSIE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 34(75) 2(77) X(77) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) 2(39) X(39) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 26(38) 5(43) X(43) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 21(44) 3(47) 1(48) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 4(31) X(31) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 5(28) X(28) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 3(19) X(19) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 3(25) 1(26) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 1(14) X(14) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 7(20) 2(22) X(22) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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