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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-04 22:44:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Jul 2021 20:44:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Jul 2021 20:44:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-07-04 22:43:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042043 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 Elsa continues to exhibit some well-defined convective banding features over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 and 55 kt respectively,so the advisory intensity remains at 50 kt. Although the cirrus-level outflow over the area looks fairly impressive, the SHIPS output diagnoses about 20 kt of vertical shear over the cyclone, which may be inhibiting strengthening. Another negative factor could be blockage of the low-level inflow by the land masses surrounding the cyclone. The storm has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion estimate is now 310/12 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory package. Elsa should move around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high pressure area during the next 3 days or so. Thereafter, the system should accelerate northward to northeastward over the eastern United States and the northwest Atlantic. No significant changes have been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains close to the simple and correct model consensus solutions. Some strengthening could occur as the storm approaches the south coast of Cuba and although not explicitly shown in the official forecast, Elsa could strengthen to near 60 kt before landfall in that country. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southwesterly shear is expected to limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba through Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday. 3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.8N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 21.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 22.7N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 24.2N 82.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/1800Z 25.8N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 27.9N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 30.5N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 08/1800Z 34.9N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1800Z 40.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-07-04 22:43:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 042043 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) 1(21) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) X(22) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) X(21) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) X(23) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) X(18) X(18) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 1(18) X(18) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 5(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) MIAMI FL 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) MARATHON FL 34 1 16(17) 28(45) 4(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) MARATHON FL 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 1 18(19) 42(61) 6(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) KEY WEST FL 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 21(40) 7(47) X(47) X(47) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 8(27) X(27) X(27) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 26(33) 15(48) X(48) X(48) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 23(40) 1(41) X(41) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 24(31) 1(32) X(32) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 1 32(33) 20(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) HAVANA 50 X 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HAVANA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 14 69(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CIENFUEGOS 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 36 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-04 22:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA ON MONDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 the center of Elsa was located near 19.8, -77.9 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 18
2021-07-04 22:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 042043 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 ...ELSA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 77.9W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF CABO CRUZ CUBA ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * Jamaica * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban province of Artemisa * The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef * Florida Bay * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or early Monday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 77.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move near or over eastern Cuba this evening, and approach central Cuba tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before Elsa moves over Cuba, followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida Keys late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys by Monday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Monday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Jamaica, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches are expected through today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant. Across portions of Cuba through Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands through Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern Florida Monday afternoon and Monday night into Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Monday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida Monday night and Tuesday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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