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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-03 17:33:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 3 the center of Elsa was located near 17.0, -71.6 with movement WNW at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 13
2021-07-03 17:33:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031533 CCA TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 13...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Corrected Cuban province to Cienfuegos in the summary section ...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 71.6W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM S OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. The Government of Jamaica has changed the Hurricane Warning for Jamaica to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 71.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight, but gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected on Jamaica and over eastern Cuba on Sunday, and are possible over central Cuba Sunday night or Monday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature. Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-07-03 17:31:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 031531 CCA TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 CORRECTED CUBAN PROVINCE TO CIENFUEGOS IN SUMMARY SECTION CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO CABO ENGANO * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA * JAMAICA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO BAHIA DE MANZANILLO * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 71.6W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 71.6W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 70.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.1N 74.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.6N 76.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.7N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 81.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.9N 82.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 35.0N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 71.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-07-03 17:01:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 031501 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that Elsa has weakened some since the last advisory. The aircraft reported maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 64 kt well to the northeast of the center, and maximum surface winds estimates from the SFMR of about 55 kt. The aircraft-reported central pressure is near 999 mb and gradually rising, In addition, the center was exposed for a few hours, although it is now located at the northwestern edge of a new convective burst. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is reduced to 60 kt. The initial motion is now 295/25. Elsa is approaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large baroclinic trough over the eastern United States. The global models forecast this trough to move eastward into the Atlantic, but the southern portion is likely to split off and become an upper-level low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico, with the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic situated to the east of the this low. This evolution should cause Elsa to slow its current breakneck forward speed during the next day or so, then turn northwestward between 36-60 h, followed by a general northward motion from 72-96 h and recurvature into the westerlies after that time. The track guidance is in much better agreement than this time yesterday, and Elsa is expected to pass near or over southwestern Haiti, Cuba, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Peninsula during the next 3 days or so. After that, the system is likely to cross portions of the southeastern United States on its way into the Atlantic. The new NHC forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous one, and it lies near the various consensus models. Elsa continues to be affected by northwesterly shear that is at least partly due to the fast forward motion. While the forward speed is forecast to decrease over the next few days, continued westerly shear and land interaction are expected to cause additional weakening. Indeed, by 60 h, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF show Elsa as a weak system with some separation between the low- and mid-level centers. While some shear is likely to continue when the storm is near or over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, upper-level divergence associated with the aforementioned upper-level low could allow for some re-intensification. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for more weakening in the first 48 h than previously forecast and then shows re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Through the first 72 h, the forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Although Elsa is now a tropical storm, hurricane warnings remain in effect for portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti at this time, as conditions have not yet reached their worst there and the possibility that a short-lived re-intensification might occur due to a convective burst. Given that there is still uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4. Key Messages: 1. A hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, where near-hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected through this evening. 2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and Jamaica today into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday, resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible. 3. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in central Cuba Sunday night and Monday. 4. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula. This risk will spread northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. Interests in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 17.0N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 18.1N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.6N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 22.7N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/0000Z 24.0N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1200Z 25.9N 82.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 30.0N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/1200Z 35.0N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-03 16:49:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Jul 2021 14:49:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Jul 2021 15:22:45 GMT
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