je.st
news
Tag: tropical storm
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-04 01:56:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Jul 2021 23:56:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Jul 2021 21:22:48 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
elsa
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-03 22:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Jul 2021 20:56:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Jul 2021 20:56:17 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
elsa
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-07-03 22:53:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 810 WTNT45 KNHC 032053 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Satellite imagery shows that Elsa looks ragged and disorganized at this time, with bursts of convection occuring near the low-level center and poorly-defined convective banding. Some of this is likely due to the the proximity of the system to Hispaniola. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported reliable 55-60 kt surface wind estimates from the SFMR, along with the latest central pressure report of 1000 mb. The initial intensity remains 60 kt based mainly on the SFMR data. The initial motion is now 295/24. There is little change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Elsa is approaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large baroclinic trough over the eastern United States. The global models forecast this trough to move eastward into the Atlantic, but the southern portion is likely to split off and become an upper-level low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico, with the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic situated to the east of the this low. In response, Elsa should slow its forward motion and turn northwestward during the next 48 h, followed by a general northward motion from 60-96 h and recurvature into the westerlies after that time. The forecast track takes the center near or over southwestern Haiti, Cuba, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Peninsula during the next 3 days or so. After that, the system is likely to cross portions of the southeastern United States on its way into the Atlantic. The new forecast track is changed little from the previous advisory, and it lies near the center of the now reasonably-agreeing track guidance envelope. In addition to land interaction, Elsa continues to be affected by northwesterly shear that is at least partly due to the fast low-level flow that the storm is embedded in. Some shear is expected to continue through the next 72 h. However, once the system passes the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, there may be less land interaction than previously forecast. The intensity guidance is in good agreement on weakening during the next 48 h, and the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF show Elsa as a not very vertically aligned system with some separation between the low- and mid-level centers over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, despite the shear, upper-level divergence associated with the aforementioned upper-level low could allow for some re-intensification as forecast by the HWRF and other models. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for some weakening in the first 48 h and then shows re- intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Through the first 72 h, the forecast remains at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Hurricane warnings remain in effect for portions of Haiti at this time, as there is still the possibility that a short-lived re-intensification might occur due to a convective burst. Given the remaining uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4. Key Messages: 1. A hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of Haiti, where near-hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected through this evening. 2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and Jamaica tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible. 3. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday. 4. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for portions of the Florida Keys. This risk will spread northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.5N 73.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.2N 78.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 21.6N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 23.1N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 24.9N 82.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 26.9N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 32.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/1800Z 36.5N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-07-03 22:53:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 032053 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 3(24) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 3(22) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 3(24) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 2(20) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 1(25) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 1(21) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 1(17) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) X(17) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) X(17) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) X(15) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 2(16) X(16) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 25(31) 14(45) X(45) X(45) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 30(35) 18(53) 1(54) X(54) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 29(38) 2(40) X(40) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 3(21) X(21) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 8(42) X(42) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 12(36) 1(37) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 19(34) X(34) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) X(20) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANDROS 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYAGUANA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 26(35) 7(42) 1(43) X(43) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 2( 2) 39(41) 13(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 1 36(37) 9(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) CAMAGUEY 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 33 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 4 20(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) KINGSTON 34 12 13(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) LES CAYES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LES CAYES 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE BEATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-03 22:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF ELSA CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 the center of Elsa was located near 17.5, -73.9 with movement WNW at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
elsa
Sites : [347] [348] [349] [350] [351] [352] [353] [354] [355] [356] [357] [358] [359] [360] [361] [362] [363] [364] [365] [366] next »