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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 48
2020-11-12 09:53:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 120853 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING BETWEEN BONITA BEACH AND MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY FLORIDA INCLUDING CHARLOTTE HARBOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FLORIDA LINE NORTHWARD TO ST. ANDREWS SOUND GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 83.0W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 83.0W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.6N 81.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.6N 78.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.2N 73.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 38.0N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-12 09:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 08:50:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 09:31:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-11-12 09:49:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 120849 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 Theta currently is comprised of a large swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no convection near the center. However, a band of convection is wrapped about three-quarters of the way around the center at a distance of about 200 n mi in the eastern semicircle and 100 n mi in the western semicircle. Overall, the cyclone has somewhat of a subtropical appearance at this time. Since there has been no data from the cyclone's core region since the last scatterometer pass, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The storm continued to jog a little to the left since the last advisory, but the last few satellite images suggest a more eastward motion has resumed. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 060/10. For the next 24 h or so, Theta is expected to continue to move east-northeastward as it rounds the north side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Cabo Verde islands. An eastward to east-southeastward motion is expected from 24-72 h as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level northerly flow moves over the cyclone. After that time, Theta or its remnants is expected to be steered northeastward in the low-level flow to the southeast of a deep-layer mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The new forecast track is adjusted north of the previous track based on the initial position and motion, and it lies near the various consensus models. Theta is forecast to change little in intensity during the next 36 h or so as it moves into the light shear area near an upper-level trough axis. After that time, the trough moves south of the cyclone, and strong northerly vertical shear should occur along with the entrainment of stable air. This combination should cause Theta to quickly weaken, and the intensity forecast calls for the system to decay to a remnant low pressure area by 96 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the old forecast, and it lies a little above the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 31.7N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 32.0N 28.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 32.3N 26.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 32.3N 24.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 32.0N 22.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 31.7N 20.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 31.6N 20.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 33.0N 19.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0600Z 37.0N 18.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-12 09:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 9:00 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 the center of Theta was located near 31.7, -30.2 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 10
2020-11-12 09:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 120849 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 ...THETA MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 30.2W ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 30.2 West. Theta is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn towards the east with a slower forward speed by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday. Slow weakening is forecast to begin over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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