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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-12 15:52:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 14:52:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 15:24:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 49
2020-11-12 15:47:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 121447 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 The center of Eta made landfall near Cedar Key, Florida with an estimated intensity of 45 kt shortly after the release of the previous NHC advisory package. Since that time, the center of Eta has moved across the northern portion of the Florida peninsula. Some weakening has occurred, but ship and buoy observations along and just off the northeast Florida coast support an initial intensity of 40 kt. Little change in strength is expected when Eta moves over the western Atlantic tonight and early Friday due to moderate to strong southwesterly shear. The ECMWF and UKMET models indicate that Eta could strengthen after it merges with a frontal zone and becomes extratropical well offshore of the east coast of the United States late Friday and Friday night. The NHC forecast calls for some slight intensification of the extratropical cyclone before it is absorbed by a large low pressure area over the western Atlantic on Saturday. Eta is moving northeastward at about 13 kt. Eta should continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so within the mid-latitude westerlies, ahead of a trough that will move across the Great Lakes region on Friday. The new official forecast is again a little faster than the previous NHC track, but the latest guidance did not require much cross-track change. Deep-layer moisture from that has spread northward along a frontal boundary across the Carolinas is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding that is not directly associated with Eta. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area along portions of the northeast Florida Coast through early this afternoon. 2. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West Florida lasting into the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 30.2N 81.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 32.0N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 34.1N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 37.3N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1200Z 40.5N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-12 15:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 14:46:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 15:31:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 49
2020-11-12 15:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 121446 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 ...CENTER OF ETA MOVING OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...STILL PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 81.8W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound Georgia. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 81.8 West. Eta is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will emerge into the western Atlantic by early this afternoon. The cyclone is expected to accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but offshore of the Carolinas tonight and early Friday before heading well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast by late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through early Friday. Eta could re-intensify as a non-tropical cyclone late Friday or Friday night before becoming absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) primarily over water to the east of the center. A NOAA Coastal Marine Observing site at St. Augustine Florida reported sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust of 44 mph (70 km/h). A wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was recently reported at the Mayport Naval Air Station near Jacksonville, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of the Florida Peninsula through today, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 to 25 inches in South Florida. Localized flash and urban flooding will be possible across the Florida Peninsula today, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West Florida lasting into the weekend. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the east coast of Florida through early this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the Florida Gulf Coast today, and begin to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 49
2020-11-12 15:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 121446 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 17(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 21(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SURF CITY NC 34 2 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 4 21(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) LITTLE RIVER 34 5 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MYRTLE BEACH 34 8 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GEORGETOWN SC 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) KINGS BAY GA 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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