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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-11-12 09:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 120849 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-11-12 09:48:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 120848 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 30.2W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 100SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 450SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 30.2W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 30.8W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.0N 28.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.3N 26.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.3N 24.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.0N 22.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.7N 20.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.6N 20.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 33.0N 19.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 37.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 30.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-12 06:44:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA CAUSING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... As of 1:00 AM EST Thu Nov 12 the center of Eta was located near 28.6, -83.3 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 47A
2020-11-12 06:44:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 120544 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 47A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 ...ETA CAUSING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 83.3W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Englewood has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Englewood to Suwannee River Florida * Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound Georgia. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 83.3 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast this morning. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move near but just offshore of the west-central coast of Florida during the next few hours, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula this morning. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late today and early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida during the next few hours, followed by more rapid weakening after landfall occurs later today. Eta is forecast to dissipate over the western Atlantic Ocean by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service station near Clearwater Beach recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 52 mph (84 km/h). A University of South Florida station in Fred Howard Park near Tarpon Springs recently measured sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust of 53 mph (85 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: West and central Florida, through today: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida, through today: An additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 to 25 inches in South Florida. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida through today, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through today. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region today. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight over parts of western and central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-12 06:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 05:44:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 03:24:41 GMT
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