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Tropical Storm Eta Update Statement
2020-11-07 17:15:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 000 WTNT64 KNHC 071614 CCA TCUAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1100 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 Corrected storm type header ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND STRONGER WINDS IN ETA... Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds in Eta have increased to 50 mph. The plane is still investigating Eta at this time. If it finds stronger winds, a special advisory may be required during the next hour or two. SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 81.5W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-07 16:18:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Nov 2020 15:18:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Nov 2020 15:45:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 28
2020-11-07 16:16:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 071515 CCA TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 CORRECTED FORMATTING OF INITIAL 34 KT WINDS. CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIEN INLET TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. * FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. * FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH FLORIDA TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE * FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 81.8W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 81.8W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 83.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 81.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-07 16:03:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Nov 2020 15:03:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Nov 2020 15:03:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 28
2020-11-07 16:01:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 071501 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 Satellite imagery and surface data indicate that Eta has become a little better organized this morning, with the center re-forming to the northeast near an area of deep convection. Surface observations from Grand Cayman Island show that the system has regained tropical-storm strength, and the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt. The initial motion is uncertain dur to the reformation, with the best estimate of 055/15. This general motion should continue for the next 24 h or so as Eta is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. From 24-96 h, the trough is forecast to become a cut-off low, and Eta is expected to turn northward, northeastward, and eventually westward as it merges with the low. There remains some spread in the guidance in just where these turns will occur and how close the center will come to south Florida and the Florida Keys. This part of the new track is nudged just a little north of the previous track. After 96 h, Eta should move slowly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with the forecast track showing a northward motion as a compromise of the poorly-agreeing guidance. Although the storm is experiencing moderate to strong southwesterly shear, strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough should allow strengthening through about 48 h, although the cyclone may acquire some subtropical characteristics as it merges with the baroclinic system. After that time, dry air entrainment is likely to cause Eta to slowly weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the old forecast. The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for south Florida and the Florida Keys at this time. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected today and Sunday in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected by late Sunday in the Florida Keys and along portions of the southeast Florida coast, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere in portions of southern and central Florida beginning Sunday night, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Additional Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be needed later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 19.6N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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