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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-07 16:00:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS THE CENTER REFORMS TO THE NORTHEAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 10:00 AM EST Sat Nov 7 the center of Eta was located near 19.6, -81.8 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 28
2020-11-07 16:00:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 105 WTNT34 KNHC 071500 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 ...ETA REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS THE CENTER REFORMS TO THE NORTHEAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 81.8W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for south Florida from Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including Florida Bay, as well as for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect along the Florida east coast north of Sebastien Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia county line. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Englewood. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. * Florida coast from Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including Florida Bay. * The Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth. * Florida east coast north of Golden Beach Florida to the Brevard/Volusia county line * Florida west coast north of Chokoloskee to Englewood * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 81.8 West. Eta is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east-northeast to northeast motion is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will approach the Cayman Islands later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the Florida Keys or south Florida Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. Grand Cayman Island recently reported estimated sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from Grand Cayman Island is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday morning: Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (650 mm). The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-3 ft Florida Keys...2-3 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-3 ft North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands this afternoon and evening, in the warning area sin Cuba tonight and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and in south Florida and the Florida Keys late Sunday and Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight and Sunday and in the watch area in Florida by late Sunday or early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday night over south Florida and the Keys SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2020-11-07 16:00:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 076 FONT14 KNHC 071500 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 4(14) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 3(15) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 2(18) 3(21) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 3(19) 2(21) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 11(25) 2(27) 1(28) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 14(41) 1(42) 1(43) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 30(37) 13(50) 1(51) X(51) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 23(25) 14(39) 1(40) 1(41) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 23(26) 13(39) 1(40) 1(41) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 19(29) 10(39) 3(42) X(42) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 11(29) 4(33) 1(34) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 26(42) 3(45) 1(46) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 3(32) 1(33) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 28(35) 4(39) 2(41) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20(24) 5(29) 3(32) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 6(22) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 6( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 6(18) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 6(23) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 6(15) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 18(25) 6(31) 1(32) 1(33) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 11(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X 5( 5) 22(27) 8(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 1(15) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 21(22) 2(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) GRAND CAYMAN 34 8 X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 28
2020-11-07 15:59:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 071459 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIEN INLET TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. * FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. * FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH FLORIDA TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE * FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 81.8W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 81.8W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 83.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 81.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Odalys Graphics
2020-11-05 21:56:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 20:56:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 20:56:00 GMT
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