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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-11-05 21:54:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052054 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 Deep convection associated with Odalys has largely dissipated over the past 6-9 h with just a remnant swirl of low clouds surrounding the center. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB continue to decrease and a recent ASCAT pass confirmed that the wind field has begun to spin down, with maximum sustained winds near 35 kt. As anticipated, the combination of high southwesterly vertical wind shear greater than 30 kt and dry mid-level air around 40 percent as diagnosed from ECMWF-SHIPS guidance has lead to a collapse of deep central convection. Even though sea surface temperatures under Odalys remain marginally warm around 26 C, vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air are forecast to become even more hostile over the next 24 h. Therefore, the latest official forecast now anticipates Odalys to become a remnant low in 24 h. Degeneration to a remnant low could occur as quickly as this evening if organized deep convection does not redevelop soon. The initial motion of the cyclone is estimated near 280/6 kt, and a due westward motion is expected within the next few hours. Odalys is now a shallow cyclone, and will primarily be steered by low-level northeasterly trade wind flow, gradually bending from a west to southwest heading over the next 24-36 h. The NHC forecast track shows a slightly sharper turn to the the southwest now that the cyclone has become more shallow, but the official track remains near the track guidance consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 18.5N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 18.3N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.7N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 17.0N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 16.4N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z 15.9N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-11-05 21:53:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 052053 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Odalys (EP5/EP202020)
2020-11-05 21:52:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ODALYS WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR TOMORROW... As of 1:00 PM PST Thu Nov 5 the center of Odalys was located near 18.5, -123.6 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Odalys Public Advisory Number 9
2020-11-05 21:52:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 052052 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 ...ODALYS WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 123.6W ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 123.6 West. Odalys is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight with a turn toward to the west-southwest beginning tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next couple of days and Odalys is expected to become a remnant low this evening or early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-11-05 21:52:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 052052 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.6W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.6W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.3N 124.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.7N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.0N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.4N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.9N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 123.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
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