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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-04 12:58:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... As of 7:00 AM EST Wed Nov 4 the center of Eta was located near 13.8, -85.0 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-04 09:58:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 08:58:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 08:58:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-11-04 09:56:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 040856 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Wed Nov 04 2020 Eta still has a well-organized cloud pattern while it moves over northern Nicaragua, but there has been a considerable decrease in deep convection as evidenced by the warming cloud tops. Assuming an inland weakening rate as given by the Decay-SHIPS model, the current intensity is reduced to 60 kt. Continued weakening will occur over the next 48 hours or so, and the system should degenerate into remnant low tomorrow. In fact, the surface circulation could lose its identity in a day or two. However, the upper-level circulation is likely to remain intact, and a surface cyclone is predicted to regenerate once the system moves into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Some strengthening is forecast thereafter, in line with the intensity model consensus. However, the global models show the system interacting with a strong upper-level trough in 3-5 days, so the cyclone may have some hybrid or subtropical characteristics by that time. Eta continues westward, or at about 270/7 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it on a generally west-northwestward track during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, a 500-mb trough/low dropping into the Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause the cyclone to move northeastward in 3-4 days. By the end of the forecast period, the system is expected to rotate cyclonically around the eastern side of the low. The official track forecast is quite close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction which is usually a good performer. There is still significant uncertainty as to the details of the track in the 3- to 5-day time frame. Of more immediate concern are the torrential rains that Eta will continue to produce over portions of Central America. Key Messages: 1. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength before it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 13.8N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0600Z 14.6N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1800Z 15.5N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 16.5N 88.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1800Z 17.6N 87.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/0600Z 19.0N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 22.6N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 25.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-11-04 09:56:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 040855 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 X( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GUANAJA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-04 09:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 4:00 AM EST Wed Nov 4 the center of Eta was located near 13.8, -84.7 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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