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Tropical Storm Odalys Graphics
2020-11-04 15:46:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 14:46:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 15:31:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-11-04 15:45:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 041444 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 Over the last 6 h Odalys has exhibited a bursting pattern with cloud tops colder than -70C occuring to the northeast of the estimated low-level center. The center itself has been a bit difficult to locate overnight but is estimated to be on the southwest edge of this recent convective activity. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB were 35 kt and 45 kt respectively, but the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt for this advisory out of respect for overnight ASCAT data that supported the lower value and the fact that the structure of the cyclone hasn't changed much since then. Odalys is now moving to the northwest with a similar forward motion 315/14 kt. This motion is expected to continue in the short term as the storm is being steered between a mid-level ridge centered over Northern Mexico to its northeast and a deep-layer trough centered to its northwest. After 24 h, Odalys is expect to become a shallow system as its convection gets stripped away by the deep layer trough. Its track will bend back west and then west-southwest as it comes under the influence of northeasterly trade wind flow associated with a low-level anticyclone off the southwestern US coast. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement of this evolution and only minor modifications were made to the forecast track owing to the slightly further north initial position. While small fluctuations in intensity associated with periodic convective bursts are possible today, southwesterly vertical wind shear is already increasing over the system and will soon be importing very dry mid-level air over the low-level circulation. This will ultimately lead to the tropical storm's demise as it moves over marginally warm sea surface temperatures. The intensity forecast was held at the current intensity for the first 24 h with gradual weakening thereafter. Odalys is expected to become a remnant low by Friday and dissipate entirely by the end of the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 16.9N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 17.9N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 18.7N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 18.8N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 18.4N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 17.6N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 16.6N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z 15.5N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Odalys (EP5/EP202020)
2020-11-04 15:41:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ODALYS MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM LAND OVER THE EAST PACIFIC... As of 7:00 AM PST Wed Nov 4 the center of Odalys was located near 16.9, -119.2 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Odalys Public Advisory Number 4
2020-11-04 15:41:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 041440 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 ...ODALYS MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM LAND OVER THE EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 119.2W ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 119.2 West. Odalys is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today followed by a gradual turn toward the west and then west-southwest as its forward speed decreases by the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Odalys is forecast to begin weakening on Thursday and become a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-11-04 15:41:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 041440 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
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