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Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-11-03 21:40:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 032040 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 29 X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 120W 34 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
Tropical Storm Odalys Graphics
2020-11-03 21:39:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Nov 2020 20:39:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Nov 2020 20:39:54 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Odalys (EP5/EP202020)
2020-11-03 21:38:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Nov 3 the center of Odalys was located near 14.1, -116.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Odalys Public Advisory Number 1
2020-11-03 21:38:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 032038 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 200 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 116.1W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 116.1 West. Odalys is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward or northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slower westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast by late this week. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Modest strengthening is possible through tonight, followed by steady weakening Wednesday through Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-11-03 21:38:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 032038 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 116.1W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 116.1W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.2N 117.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.8N 120.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.9N 122.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 123.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.5N 125.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.0N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 116.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
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