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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-11-01 03:47:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 010247 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 8(25) 5(30) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 29(51) 7(58) 2(60) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 4(24) 1(25) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15(17) 11(28) 1(29) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN ANDRES 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 16(29) 8(37) 1(38) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) LIMON 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) COLON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) KINGSTON 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-01 03:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ETA... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 the center of Eta was located near 15.0, -74.2 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 2
2020-11-01 03:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 010247 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ETA... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 74.2W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. The Government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northeastern coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. * The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these countries later tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 74.2 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday night or Monday morning. A slower motion toward the west-southwest and then southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras by Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Eta is expected to cause 5 to 10 inches of rain, with local 15-inch amounts, across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and possibly the southern coast of Hispaniola. Across portions of Central America, 10 to 15 inches of rain, with local amounts to 25 inches are expected. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding and river flooding, and could lead to landslides in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-11-01 03:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 010247 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO PUERTO CABEZAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO PUERTO CABEZAS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 74.2W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 74.2W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 73.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.1N 76.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 78.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.2N 80.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.7N 82.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.2N 82.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.7N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 50SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 14.0N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 14.5N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 74.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Zeta Graphics
2020-10-29 15:53:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Oct 2020 14:53:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Oct 2020 14:53:42 GMT
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