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Tropical Storm Zeta Graphics
2020-10-27 21:42:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Oct 2020 20:42:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Oct 2020 21:25:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-10-27 21:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 272041 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Visible satellite images show that the low-level center of the storm is slightly displaced to the north of the main area of deep convection. Since the organization of the tropical cyclone has not yet improved, the current intensity is held at 55 kt, which is a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Zeta should move over warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment through tomorrow morning, so strengthening is anticipated, and the cyclone is likely to regain hurricane intensity within the next 6-12 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance suite. Zeta is expected to interact with a frontal zone and become an extratropical cyclone as it approaches the eastern United States in a couple of days. After moving off the U.S. east coast, the system is forecast to become absorbed by the same frontal system. Zeta continues to move northwestward, or at about 310/12 kt. The expected large-scale steering flow evolution remains about the same as before. Zeta is expected to turn northward and move along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone centered east of Florida through Wednesday morning. Then, a vigorous 500-mb shortwave trough approaching from the west should cause Zeta to accelerate north- northeastward and move inland along the central Gulf Coast by late Wednesday. The cyclone should continue to accelerate ahead of the trough and move over the southeastern and eastern U.S. through Thursday. The official track forecast was nudged just slightly westward in 24 to 36 hours to be in better agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF explicit model fields. Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundation occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Wednesday within portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City, Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to Zeta's fast forward speed. 3. Localized heavy rainfall from Zeta will continue tonight in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba where additional flash flooding is possible in urban areas. Tonight through Thursday heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 22.7N 90.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 24.5N 91.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 32.4N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1800Z 37.2N 81.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 30/0600Z 40.0N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-27 21:40:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE TO A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TOMORROW... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 the center of Zeta was located near 22.7, -90.3 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-10-27 21:40:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 272040 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 13(13) 15(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 20(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 37(37) 9(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 3( 3) 45(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 4( 4) 47(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 14(14) 24(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) MOBILE AL 34 X 5( 5) 68(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X 7( 7) 69(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 45(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X 10(10) 61(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) STENNIS MS 50 X 1( 1) 36(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 X 33(33) 53(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) BURAS LA 50 X 5( 5) 50(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 6 59(65) 12(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 15(15) 12(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 19(19) 43(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 7 85(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 79(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 28(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 24(24) 19(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 25(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X 9( 9) 46(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEESLER AB 34 X 20(20) 60(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) KEESLER AB 50 X 1( 1) 47(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 13
2020-10-27 21:40:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 272040 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 ...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE TO A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 90.3W ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 90.3 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, and a faster northward to north- northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, make landfall within the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane again tonight and is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late Wednesday. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night. RAINFALL: An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast tonight, with the core of heavy rains spreading north into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday, near and in advance of Zeta. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. Zeta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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