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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 10
2020-09-20 04:55:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200255 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...BETA FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 92.2W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended east of High Island, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana. The Tropical Storm Watch east of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay, Texas to Port Aransas, Texas including Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. Beta has drifted toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h) since this morning. A slow motion toward the west-northwest is forecast to begin on Sunday, followed by a slow northwest to north motion late Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move toward the coast of Texas and potentially move inland late Monday or early Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland Monday night or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Corpus Christi Bay, Baffin Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning in the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will spread westward to the warning areas in Texas late Sunday through early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the central Louisiana coast tonight, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches across southern Louisiana and coastal southeast Texas, with 3 to 7 inches spreading northward into the Mid-South mid next week. Flash and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Isolated moderate flooding along the middle Texas coast is possible. SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-09-20 04:55:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 200255 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) BURAS LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) MORGAN CITY LA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 5(13) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 4(14) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 5(15) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 5(15) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 12 15(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) 1(30) 1(31) GFMX 280N 930W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 3(16) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) 5(17) 5(22) CAMERON LA 34 14 10(24) 6(30) 2(32) 4(36) 5(41) 3(44) CAMERON LA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 3(19) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 8(18) 5(23) 2(25) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 7(20) 5(25) 3(28) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 12 18(30) 17(47) 5(52) 4(56) 1(57) 2(59) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 1 3( 4) 10(14) 10(24) 9(33) 3(36) 1(37) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 1(13) 1(14) FREEPORT TX 34 2 12(14) 22(36) 9(45) 4(49) 2(51) 1(52) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 24 33(57) 17(74) 2(76) 3(79) 1(80) X(80) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 8( 8) 19(27) 5(32) 3(35) X(35) 1(36) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 9(11) 9(20) 4(24) 6(30) 4(34) 2(36) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 5 18(23) 26(49) 10(59) 4(63) 1(64) 1(65) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 3 14(17) 24(41) 9(50) 7(57) 2(59) X(59) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 10(22) 9(31) 3(34) X(34) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 9(22) 1(23) 1(24) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 5 12(17) 14(31) 6(37) 7(44) 2(46) X(46) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) X(12) 1(13) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MCALLEN TX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KEESLER AB 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-20 04:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200255 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST OF HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...LOUISIANA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...LOUISIANA... INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND LAKE CALCASIEU A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY...TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 92.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......160NE 40SE 40SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 92.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 92.2W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 27.1N 93.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 50SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.4N 94.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 50SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.9N 95.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.4N 96.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.9N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.3N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 30.2N 94.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 31.4N 92.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 92.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Graphics
2020-09-20 04:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 02:35:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 02:35:56 GMT
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-20 04:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200234 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Microwave data since the previous advisory indicates that the center of Wilfred is located near the southwestern edge of the deep convection. The displacement of the center from the convection is the result of moderate westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, and is based on an ASCAT-B overpass from around 0000 UTC that revealed peak winds of 30-35 kt. Wilfred is headed toward an area of increasing westerly wind shear, and a drier mid-level environment. These negative factors should lead to weakening in 24 to 48 h, and the global models dissipate the cyclone within the next few days. The official forecast follows suit, but given the small size of the cyclone it could weaken and dissipate sooner than indicated below. The initial motion estimate is 295/14, a little faster than before. Wilfred is forecast to remain on a west-northwestward heading through Sunday, but should turn westward within the low-level flow by Sunday night or Monday. The latest NHC track forecast is once again similar to the previous advisory and near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 14.5N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 15.3N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 15.8N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 16.2N 47.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 16.4N 49.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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