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Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-09-19 23:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 192100 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 7(17) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 5(16) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 7(20) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 7(20) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 6 10(16) 1(17) 1(18) 1(19) 2(21) 2(23) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 6(17) 5(22) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 8(22) 6(28) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CAMERON LA 34 7 14(21) 8(29) 3(32) 6(38) 8(46) 4(50) CAMERON LA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 9(15) 7(22) 4(26) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 10(19) 9(28) 5(33) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 10(22) 8(30) 6(36) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 7 20(27) 17(44) 10(54) 5(59) 4(63) 2(65) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 5(18) 2(20) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 9(21) 12(33) 8(41) 3(44) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 12(19) 6(25) 1(26) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 5(22) 1(23) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 1 11(12) 20(32) 13(45) 8(53) 4(57) 1(58) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 2(16) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 24 35(59) 19(78) 5(83) 1(84) 1(85) 1(86) GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 11(12) 23(35) 7(42) 2(44) 2(46) 1(47) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 7( 8) 9(17) 6(23) 9(32) 8(40) 4(44) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MATAGORDA TX 34 5 20(25) 25(50) 15(65) 6(71) 2(73) 1(74) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 14(23) 6(29) 2(31) 2(33) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 3 16(19) 27(46) 17(63) 7(70) 2(72) 1(73) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 16(25) 7(32) 2(34) 1(35) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 1(10) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 18(35) 12(47) 5(52) 1(53) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 1(17) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 15(24) 11(35) 6(41) 1(42) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) 1(11) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 6 19(25) 21(46) 9(55) 10(65) 2(67) 1(68) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) 7(28) 3(31) 1(32) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) MCALLEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 4(14) X(14) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 4(19) X(19) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 4(17) X(17) GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) 7(21) 4(25) 1(26) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-19 22:59:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 192059 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA INCLUDING SABINE LAKE AND LAKE CALCASIEU A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 92.4W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 40SE 40SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 92.4W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.7N 93.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.1N 94.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.5N 95.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.9N 96.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.3N 96.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.8N 96.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 29.5N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 92.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-19 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 192033 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 A small low-level swirl that is apparently Wilfred's circulation center was noted in late afternoon visible imagery. The coldest cloud tops are in a small area of bursting convection to the northeast of the center with a ragged convective band noted to the south and southwest. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates remain 35 kt, and that will be the intensity for this advisory, but could be a bit generous. Increasing westerly shear and a drying airmass along the forecast track should result in weakening within 36 to 48 hours, and global models show the cyclone dissipating by 60 h. However, given the small size of the system, it wouldn't be surprising if the cyclone weakened or dissipated sooner than shown here. The initial motion estimate is 290/12. Wilfred should continue west-northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours before turning westward in the low-level flow prior to dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the consensus aids and the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 14.0N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 14.8N 41.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 15.6N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 16.0N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 16.2N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-19 22:32:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 192032 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Tropical Storm Wilfred (AT3/AL232020)
2020-09-19 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TINY WILFRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of Wilfred was located near 14.0, -39.2 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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