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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-19 17:37:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 191537 CCA TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CORRECTED 96 AND 120 H INTENSITIES CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO CAMERON...LA INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE AND CALCASIEU LAKE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 92.6W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 92.6W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 26.9N 93.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 27.1N 93.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.5N 94.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.8N 95.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.2N 96.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.6N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 30.5N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 92.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Wilfred (AT3/AL232020)
2020-09-19 17:05:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WILFRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of Wilfred was located near 13.4, -38.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-19 17:05:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 191504 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Corrected headline ...WILFRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 38.1W ABOUT 960 MI...1540 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1555 MI...2505 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 38.1 West. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening on Monday. Wilfred is expected to become a remnant low by Monday night and dissipate on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-19 17:03:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BETA STARTING ITS WESTWARD TURN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 the center of Beta was located near 26.6, -92.6 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 8
2020-09-19 17:03:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191502 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 8...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Corrected Storm Surge amounts ...BETA STARTING ITS WESTWARD TURN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 92.6W ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Port Aransas, Texas to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Texas coast later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected to begin later today, with a slow northwestward motion forecast to begin late Sunday or Sunday night and continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to be at or near hurricane strength Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft Cameron, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Borgne...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm Warning area by late Sunday or Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast Sunday night RAINFALL: Beta has the potential to produce a long-lived rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches beginning Saturday across southern Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Additional heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are possible through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near the Texas coast. SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico later today, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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