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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-19 10:52:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190852 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM HIGH ISLAND...TX TO CAMERON...LA INCLUDING SABINE LAKE AND CALCASIEU LAKE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO CAMERON...LA INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE AND CALCASIEU LAKE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 92.5W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 92.5W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 92.3W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.6N 92.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.9N 93.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.1N 94.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.4N 95.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.7N 95.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.1N 96.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 28.7N 95.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.7N 93.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 92.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Graphics
2020-09-19 10:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:33:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:33:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-19 10:32:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190832 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Helpful AMSR microwave imagery from near 4Z revealed that Wilfred consists of a small low embedded within a broader elongated area of low pressure. A skinny, ragged band of convection wraps around the western and southern portions of the tropical storm, but Wilfred is only producing a small amount of convection near its center. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are generally near 35 kt, and the intensity is held at that value. No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. Wilfred should continue to move generally west-northwestward for the next few days, steered by a subtropical ridge to the north. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible for the next day or two, but Wilfred should be on the overall decline by the end of the weekend due to increasing wind shear and an expected influx of dry, stable air. The dynamical guidance consensus is that Wilfred will open into a trough and dissipate in about 72 h, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. Both the NHC track and intensity forecasts are based on the multi-model consensus throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 13.1N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 13.8N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 14.8N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 15.8N 44.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 16.5N 46.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 16.8N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Wilfred (AT3/AL232020)
2020-09-19 10:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WOEFUL WILFRED HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of Wilfred was located near 13.1, -36.9 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-19 10:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190831 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...WOEFUL WILFRED HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 36.9W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 36.9 West. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible over the weekend. A general weakening trend should begin by late Sunday and Wilfred is forecast to become a remnant low in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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