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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-09-16 22:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 162034 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF ALABAMA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 86.8W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 75SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 86.8W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 87.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.9N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.2N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.2N 81.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 86.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-16 16:37:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 14:37:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 15:53:01 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-09-16 16:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161436 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Very little deep convection with cloud tops of -40C remains this morning, and what's left is located well to the west-northwest of the center of circulation. There could still be a few 35-kt winds remaining in that particular area, which was identified earlier by a scatterometer pass, so the initial intensity is held at a generous 35 kt for this advisory. Karina is expected to continue traversing cooler waters while moving farther into an inhibiting thermodynamic environment and unfavorable upper-level winds. Therefore, weakening is forecast and Karina should degenerate to a remnant low tonight. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/7 kt. A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later today and the cyclone should continue on this general motion through Thursday night. A westward turn is forecast on Friday as Karina degenerates to a remnant low and is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 22.6N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1200Z 23.8N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 24.0N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 23.9N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 23.6N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-16 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 the center of Karina was located near 22.6, -123.9 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 15
2020-09-16 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161435 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 123.9W ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 123.9 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast today. A slower westward motion is expected toward the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Karina is expected to become a remnant low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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